San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick – 7/24/2025

The San Diego Padres will visit Busch Stadium to face the St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday night. This is the first game of a four-game series between these teams and the first meeting between these teams so far this season. Before these teams with postseason aspirations do battle, continue reading to get my Padres vs Cardinals prediction ahead of what is expected to be a tight game.

Our Padres vs Cardinals Pick

• Pick: Cardinals moneyline
• Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals
• Date & Time: Thursday, July 24, 2025, 7:45 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Yu Darvish (SD) vs Sonny Gray (STL)
• Stadium: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
• Broadcast: FDSMW and SDPA

Key Storylines

Pitching Form

• Yu Darvish: Darvish is 0‑2 with a 6.08 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Darvish has thrown just 13.1 innings in what has been an injury-plagued season for the right-hander.
• Sonny Gray: Gray has gone 9‑4 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Gray averages over a strikeout per inning but is still vulnerable to contact going into this matchup with the potent offense of the Padres.

Bullpen Usage

• Padres bullpen: The Padres have the best bullpen ERA in the major leagues this year. They will be leaned on early if Darvish is unable to go deep in this game while he works his way back from injury.
• Cardinals bullpen: The Cardinals rank seventh in the league in bullpen ERA. They certainly have the bullpen talent to match that of the Padres throughout this series.

Recent Team Streaks

• The Padres have dropped two straight games to the Rockies going into this series.
• The Cardinals are losers of two straight games to the Miami Marlins entering this contest.
• Both clubs have been disappointing since the All‑Star break. The Padres lost their most recent series against the Marlins and the Cardinals lost their most recent series to the Rockies. Both teams will need to raise their level of play if they want to win this series opener.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• This is the first matchup between these teams this season.
• The Padres and Cardinals will play seven times between this game and the end of the regular season.
• The Padres are 24-29 on the road this year. The Cardinals are 29-20 at home.

Padres vs Cardinals Model Projection

Score Projection: Cardinals 4 – Padres 2

Win Probability: Cardinals 57%, Padres 43%

Final Thoughts

Home-field advantage will be a huge factor in this series opener between San Diego and St. Louis. The Cardinals have done a great job of taking advantage of their opportunities at home this year. With the Padres struggling on the road as much as they have, I think the Cardinals win this game and keep themselves above the .500 mark for the season.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.