San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners Prediction & Picks 9/11/2024

• Date: September 11, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael King - Padres
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to face the San Diego Padres on September 11, 2024, both teams are coming off a contest just a day prior, where the Mariners fell to the Padres with a score of 7-3. This matchup features the Mariners, who currently hold a record of 73-72 and are having an average season, against the Padres, who are in a much stronger position at 82-64.

In this interleague contest, Mariners' pitcher Bryan Woo and Padres' Michael King are set to take the mound. Woo, ranked as the 32nd best starting pitcher in MLB, has been effective this season with a 7-2 record and a stellar ERA of 2.36. However, his advanced metrics suggest he may have benefited from some luck, as his xFIP stands at 3.84, indicating potential regression. Woo is projected to allow 1.9 earned runs and pitch an average of 5.3 innings today.

On the other hand, Michael King, who ranks 19th among MLB starters, boasts a solid 12-8 record and a 3.10 ERA. He has been dominant in his last outing, allowing just 1 earned run over 6 innings while striking out 8 batters. King is projected to be a tough challenge for the Mariners, especially since he faces an offense that ranks 1st in strikeouts this season.

While the Mariners’ offense has struggled, ranking 24th overall and dead last in team batting average, the projections suggest a slight edge for the Padres, who are performing well offensively. The Padres boast the 7th best offense in MLB, complemented by a top-notch bullpen ranked 2nd. With a low game total of 7.0 runs and both teams' current moneylines set at -110, this matchup is expected to remain competitive.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Michael King has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an extra 4.5 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 10th-best batter in Major League Baseball when estimating his batting average ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Jorge Polanco pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.8% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 40 games (+7.90 Units / 18% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 71 games (+13.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 44 games (+14.55 Units / 31% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 3.6 vs Seattle Mariners 3.44

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