San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Prediction – 8/11/2025
The San Francisco Giants will host the San Diego Padres at Oracle Park on Monday night. These NL West rivals are in two different places in the Wild Card race. The Giants enter this series on the outside looking in and the Padres are currently in the second Wild Card spot. Here, I break down this matchup and give you my Padres vs Giants prediction.
Our Padres vs Giants Pick
- Pick: Giants Moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants
- Date & Time: Monday, August 11, 2025, 9:45 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Yu Darvish vs Logan Webb
- Stadium: Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA
- Broadcast: NBCS-BA and SDPA
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Logan Webb has been the Giants’ most reliable arm this year. He holds a 3.24 ERA with a strong strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Giants will need to best version of Webb to get a win here. Yu Darvish has been inconsistent since returning from injury. He has a 6.51 ERA and a WHIP north of 1.30 this year and that could be a problem for the Giants here.
Key Players
The bullpens on both sides are the key figures in this game. These teams have the two best bullpen ERAs so far this season. Whichever bullpen is better in this game will give their team the inside track to win this matchup.
Recent team streaks
- The Padres have won two straight games and four of their last five.
- San Francisco has lost two games in a row but has gone 3-2 in their last five games.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (Giants) | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Yu Darvish (Padres) | Under 5.5 Strikeouts |
| Logan Webb (Giants) | Over 6.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Padres lead the season series between these teams 4-2.
- This is the first of seven games between these teams scheduled for the next 10 days.
- San Diego is 28-32 on the road this season.
- The Giants are 29-28 at home for the year.
Padres vs Giants Model Projection
Score Projection: San Francisco 4 – San Diego 3
Win Probability: Padres 43%, Giants 57%
Final Thoughts
I think the Giants will win at home despite having an inferior record to the Padres for the season. Logan Webb is a more consistent arm than Darvish this year. I expect the Giants to pull just a bit closer in the NL Wild Card race by getting a win at home to open this three-game set.
