San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction & Picks 8/8/2024

San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Details

• Date: August 8, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres
  • Luis Ortiz - Pirates

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

On August 8, 2024, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the San Diego Padres at PNC Park in a crucial National League matchup. This game marks the third in the series between these two teams. Currently, the Pirates sit at 56-57, having had an average season, while the Padres hold a stronger record of 63-52, showcasing an above-average performance.

In their last outing, the Padres won a thrilling 10-inning affair by a score of 9-8 over Pittsburgh. The Pirates will turn to Luis Ortiz, who has a solid ERA of 3.21 this season, suggesting he has been fortunate given his xFIP of 4.57. Ortiz has been effective in his starts but projects to allow 2.9 earned runs and 5.8 hits today, which might hinder his efforts against a potent Padres lineup.

Randy Vasquez, starting for the Padres, has had his struggles, with a 4.62 ERA and a concerning xERA of 5.91. This matchup could favor the Pirates if they can capitalize on his lower strikeout percentage, as their offense has been inconsistent, ranking 28th in MLB. However, they do have Bryan Reynolds, who has recently been their best hitter, posting a .333 batting average with 1 home run over the last week.

The projections suggest a close contest, with the Pirates holding a slight edge in their implied total at 4.30 runs. Given the Padres’ strong offensive ranking, including being 1st in team batting average, they will look to exploit Ortiz’s limitations. As both teams strive for a win, the stakes remain high in this evenly matched contest.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Tallying 14.2 outs per GS this year on average, Randy Vasquez ranks in the 8th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Kyle Higashioka has a ton of pop (91st percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (27.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Luis Ortiz has a pitch-to-contact profile (23rd percentile K%) — great news for Higashioka.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Kyle Higashioka pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.7% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 9th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Luis Ortiz has used his cut-fastball 22.3% more often this year (22.6%) than he did last year (0.3%).

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 85.4-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Joey Bart, Michael A. Taylor, Jared Triolo).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 45 of their last 77 games (+12.70 Units / 13% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 away games (+10.95 Units / 51% ROI)
• Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.05 Units / 27% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 5.16 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.56

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