San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction – 6/30/2025

The matchup on June 30, 2025, features a compelling National League contest between the Philadelphia Phillies and the San Diego Padres at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies are currently 49-35, enjoying a strong season, while the Padres sit at 45-38, with an above-average performance thus far. Both teams are looking to gain momentum, particularly the Phillies, who are fresh off a recent victory, showcasing their potent offense.

Philadelphia's Zack Wheeler is projected to take the mound, and he comes in as one of the top pitchers in baseball, currently ranked as the 3rd best starter according to advanced Power Rankings. Wheeler boasts a stellar 2.55 ERA this season, with a solid 7-3 record over 16 starts. While he projects to allow 2.5 earned runs today, there are some concerns; he tends to give up an average of 5.3 hits, which could play into the Padres' hands, especially given their average team batting performance.

On the other side, San Diego will counter with Matt Waldron, who has struggled this season, ranked among the worst pitchers in the league. Waldron’s projections are concerning, with an expected 4.8 innings pitched and 3.2 earned runs allowed. This discrepancy between the starting pitchers heavily favors Philadelphia.

Offensively, the Phillies rank 9th overall in MLB, with a particularly effective batting average at 7th, while the Padres sit at a disappointing 23rd in overall offense. With the Phillies' projected team total sitting at a healthy 5.32 runs, their lineup is expected to capitalize on Waldron's struggles.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Matt Waldron's high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (66.6% since the start of last season) should work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Xander Bogaerts is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

San Diego Padres hitters jointly grade out 28th- in MLB for power this year when assessing with their 7% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Out of all starting pitchers, Zack Wheeler's fastball spin rate of 2467 rpm ranks in the 89th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Bryson Stott has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.1-mph dropping to 80.4-mph over the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Brandon Marsh has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 67 games (+12.80 Units / 12% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 27 away games (+11.30 Units / 36% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+6.70 Units / 16% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.36, Philadelphia Phillies 5.56

• Date: June 30, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matt Waldron - Padres
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies

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