San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/14/2024

San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Details

• Date: June 14, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matt Waldron - Padres
  • Sean Manaea - Mets

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Betting Preview

As the New York Mets prepare to host the San Diego Padres on June 14, 2024, at Citi Field, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations this season. The Mets, with a 30-37 record, are struggling, while the Padres sit at an average 37-35. This National League matchup offers an interesting pitching duel and a clash of offenses.

The Mets will send left-hander Sean Manaea to the mound. Manaea has had an up-and-down season, reflected in his 3-3 win/loss record and an ERA of 4.30. However, his 3.78 FIP suggests that he may have been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Manaea is projected by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs while striking out 5.0 batters. Despite his average season, Manaea's peripherals indicate potential for improvement.

On the other side, the Padres will counter with right-hander Matt Waldron. Waldron's 4-5 record and 3.76 ERA indicate he's been more effective, but his 3.25 FIP also suggests some bad luck. Projections have him pitching 5.5 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, and striking out 4.6 batters. While Waldron’s performance has been solid, his strikeout numbers are below average, and both pitchers are projected to allow a high number of hits and walks.

Offensively, the Padres have the edge. Ranked 7th in MLB, they boast the league's best batting average and are top 10 in home runs and stolen bases. The Mets, with the 14th best offense, rank middle-of-the-pack in key metrics such as batting average, home runs, and stolen bases. The Mets' bullpen, ranked 21st, has struggled, contrasting with the Padres' 10th-ranked bullpen, which has been a strength.

Starling Marte has been the Mets' standout hitter over the last week, hitting .429 with a 1.214 OPS, while Jurickson Profar has been the Padres' hot hand, boasting a .333 average and 1.300 OPS with 7 RBIs and 2 home runs in his last five games.

Betting markets see this game as a toss-up, with both teams having a moneyline set at -110 and an implied win probability of 50%. Given the Padres' stronger bullpen and better offensive metrics, they might have a slight edge despite the even odds. It’s shaping up to be an intriguing start to the series at Citi Field.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

When it comes to his home runs, Jackson Merrill has experienced some negative variance this year. His 12.3 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a good deal lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 38.5.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the San Diego Padres with a 17.9% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Sean Manaea has utilized his sinker 33.6% more often this season (34.3%) than he did last season (0.7%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

J.D. Martinez's 17.1% Barrel% (an advanced stat to study power) is in the 99th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets' bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst among all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 57 games (+7.10 Units / 10% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 23 away games (+8.60 Units / 29% ROI)
• Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 31 games (+7.85 Units / 18% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.1 vs New York Mets 4.29

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.