San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/16/2024

San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Details

• Date: June 16, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dylan Cease - Padres
  • Tylor Megill - Mets

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets and San Diego Padres square off in the third game of their series at Citi Field on June 16, 2024. The Mets, who are hosting this National League matchup, are struggling this season with a 32-37 record, whereas the Padres are currently even at 37-37, reflecting a more balanced performance so far. Yesterday, the Mets took a 5-1 victory against the Padres, a much-needed win in what's been a below-average season for the New York team.

On the mound, New York is projected to start right-hander Tylor Megill. Despite his promising 3.16 ERA this season, advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit fortunate. His xFIP sits at 3.82, indicating he could be in for a tougher outing against a potent Padres lineup. Megill has a 1-3 record over five starts this year, and projections estimate him to pitch 5.1 innings today, potentially allowing 2.3 earned runs and 4.7 hits while striking out 4.1 batters.

On the other hand, the Padres will counter with their ace, Dylan Cease. Cease’s impressive 3.36 ERA and six victories this season underscore his status as the #27 ranked starting pitcher in MLB. The projections estimate Cease to pitch 5.7 innings, giving up just 2.2 earned runs while striking out 6.9 batters. However, his tendency to allow hits and walks could provide the Mets with some offensive opportunities.

Offensively, the Padres hold a clear advantage. Ranked 7th overall, San Diego boasts the 1st best team batting average and a solid standing in home runs (9th) and stolen bases (10th). Meanwhile, the Mets' offense sits around the middle of the pack, ranking 14th in batting average and 11th in home runs.

Betting markets and THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, both give the Padres a slight edge with a 53% win probability, compared to the implied 47% for the Mets. Despite last night's win, the Mets will face an uphill battle today against Dylan Cease and a strong Padres lineup. Given the numbers and projections, expect a tightly contested game with the Padres having the upper hand.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Dylan Cease's slider percentage has spiked by 8.8% from last year to this one (38.6% to 47.4%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Cronenworth has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The San Diego Padres (17.6 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the least strikeout-prone team of batters on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Among every team playing today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the New York Mets.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Starling Marte has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his home runs this year; his 17.2 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is significantly deflated relative to his 62.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

New York's 89.4-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is one of the best in the majors: #5 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+7.20 Units / 22% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.54 Units / 33% ROI)
• Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 28 games (+8.25 Units / 28% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.24 vs New York Mets 3.75

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