San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/15/2024

San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Details

• Date: June 15, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Adam Mazur - Padres
  • Jose Quintana - Mets

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets will host the San Diego Padres at Citi Field on June 15, 2024, in the second game of their series. The Mets, currently holding a 31-37 record, have had a below-average season and are struggling to find consistency. They will look to bounce back from a rocky stretch as they face the Padres, who are sitting at 37-36 and having an average season.

Jose Quintana is slated to start for the Mets. Quintana, a left-handed pitcher, has had a tough season with a 1-5 record and an ERA of 5.29. However, his 4.75 xFIP suggests he's been somewhat unlucky and might be due for better performances. Quintana is projected to go 5.4 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, and striking out 3.4 batters. His struggles with walks and hits allowed could be problematic against a potent Padres offense.

On the other side, the Padres will counter with right-hander Adam Mazur, who has made only two starts this season. Mazur has a dreadful 9.00 ERA but a 6.47 xFIP, indicating he’s also been unlucky. He projects to pitch 5.0 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, and striking out 4.2 batters. Both pitchers are looking to turn their seasons around, but the Mets' offense, ranked 14th in MLB, might have an edge against Mazur’s struggles.

Offensively, the Padres have been impressive, ranking 7th overall with the highest team batting average in MLB. Their power is evident, ranking 9th in home runs. David Peralta has been on fire lately, boasting a .500 batting average and a 1.386 OPS over the last week. This could spell trouble for Quintana, who has a low strikeout rate and faces a team that rarely strikes out.

The Mets will rely on Starling Marte, who has been their best hitter over the last week with a .412 batting average and a 1.121 OPS. Despite their average offensive ranking, the Mets will need Marte and the rest of the lineup to capitalize on Mazur’s vulnerability.

Betting markets have set the Mets' moneyline at -120, implying a 52% win probability, while the Padres' moneyline is at +100, implying a 48% win probability. The Mets have a slight edge in this closely matched game, but given the Padres' offensive prowess and both starting pitchers' struggles, it could go either way. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, suggesting an average scoring affair.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The San Diego Padres infield defense profiles as the 3rd-best among all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Jake Cronenworth is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The San Diego Padres (16.9 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the least strikeout-heavy team of hitters of all teams today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Jose Quintana will post an average of 3.4 strikeouts in this outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

This season, there has been a decline in J.D. Martinez's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.07 ft/sec last year to 25.57 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The New York Mets bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 59 games (+6.90 Units / 10% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 27 away games (+9.00 Units / 26% ROI)
• Jake Cronenworth has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 42 games (+7.70 Units / 18% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.43 vs New York Mets 4.18

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.