The New York Mets will host the San Diego Padres in a huge game in the National League playoff chase for both teams. Both teams are occupying Wild Card spots in the National League and will look for a huge win to help their playoff prospects tonight. Before this game gets going from Citi Field, continue reading to get my Padres vs Mets prediction.
Our Padres vs Mets Pick
- Pick: Padres moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets
- Date & Time: Wednesday, September 17, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Nick Pivetta (Padres) vs David Peterson (Mets)
- Stadium: Citi Field, Queens, NY
- Broadcast: SNY and SDPA
Key Storylines
Playoff Picture
The Padres come into this game in second place in the NL Wild Card standings. They are also two games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West race. The Mets are no longer in contention to win the NL East. But they are 1.5 games ahead of the Arizona Diamondbacks in the chase for the final NL Wild Card spot.
Pitching matchup
Nick Pivetta has been among San Diego’s most reliable starters this season. He holds a 13-5 record and a 2.73 ERA, and in September he’s been especially sharp. Over his last 19 innings, he’s yielded only three earned runs, generating a high whiff rate with his fastball-curveball arsenal and holding opponents to a batting average around .212 on the road.
New York’s David Peterson has been solid for New York. He has a 9-5 record with a 3.77 ERA. While competent, Peterson has shown some vulnerability, especially against teams with strong plate discipline and power. If Pivetta maintains his recent form, he could tilt the game heavily in favor of the Padres.
Recent team streaks
- The Mets have won two games in a row and will look for a key victory at home tonight.
- The Padres lost the first game of this series but they are 3-2 over their last five games.
Best Player Props
| Player | Pick |
|---|---|
| Juan Soto | Under 1.5 Total Bases |
| Pete Alonso | Under 1.5 Total Bases |
| Nick Pivetta | Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
| David Peterson | Under 5.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Padres hold a 3-1 lead in their season series against the Mets.
- The home team is 4-0 in games between the Mets and Padres this season.
Padres vs Mets Model Projection
Score Projection: Padres 4 – Mets 3
Win Probability: Padres 55%, Mets 45%
Final Thoughts
Both teams are sending quality starting pitchers to the mound for this important game in the National League. I think the Padres have a slight edge on the mound with Pivetta against Peterson. That and the fact that the Padres have one of the best bullpens in baseball should be the ultimate difference maker in this contest. I will take the Padres to get a win on the road to even this three-game series at a game apiece and strengthen the position of the Padres in the Wild Card race.
