San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Pick – 9/16/2025
The National League playoff race will continue with the San Diego Padres visiting the New York Mets on Tuesday night. San Diego has moved into second place in the NL Wild Card standings and appear to be closing in on locking up a playoff berth. They will look for a key win here against a Mets team that is holding on for dear life in the Wild Card chase. Here, I break down this National League matchup and give you my Padres vs Mets prediction.
Our Padres vs Mets Pick
- Pick: Padres moneyline
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: San Diego Padres vs New York Mets
- Date & Time: Tuesday, September 16, 2025, 7:10 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Michael King vs Clay Holmes
- Stadium: Citi Field, Queens, NY
- Broadcast: TBS
Key Storylines
- These teams are both occupying Wild Card spots going into this series. The Padres are second in the Wild Card standings and the Mets are third. New York is just 1.5 games clear of the Arizona Diamondbacks and could really use a win to help them hold onto that spot.
- The Mets have been struggling mightily of late. They had dropped eight games in a row before beating the Texas Rangers in extra innings on Sunday. The Mets can’t afford to continue losing games if they want to see the postseason.
Pitching matchup
- Michael King will get the ball for the Padres to start this game. King missed a large chunk of this season due to injuries. But he is 4-2 with a 2.87 ERA in the games that he has started and he will try to get the Padres a huge win tonight.
- Clay Holmes is set to start this contest for the Mets. Holmes is 11-8 with a 3.75 ERA. His walk numbers are little on the high side but Holmes has done a masterful job of keeping the ball in the yard. He will need to avoid letting that change against some dangerous Padres hitters here.
Recent team streaks
- The Padres have won three of their last four games going into this series.
- New York has dropped four of its last five games and can’t afford to keep losing.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Line |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | Home Run | To hit a HR |
| Michael King | Strikeouts | Over 4.5 |
| Clay Holmes | Strikeouts | Under 5.5 |
| Manny Machado | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Padres lead the season series 3-0 after sweeping the Mets in San Diego in July.
- San Diego outscored the Mets 19-7 in that first series they played against each other.
Padres vs Mets Model Projection
Score Projection: Padres 5 – Mets 3
Win Probability: Padres 56%, Mets 44%
Final Thoughts
The Padres are playing much better baseball than the Mets right now. While New York has been very good at home this season, I don’t think that will be enough to help them overcome their current struggles. I’ll take the Padres to win on the road in a game with huge playoff implications on both sides.
