San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins Pick – 8/31/2025
The San Diego Padres and Minnesota Twins will wrap up their weekend series on Sunday afternoon in Minneapolis. Each team has won a game in this series so far and will look to get the series win in Sunday’s rubber match. Minnesota will look to take advantage of their pitching edge in this contest. Before the final game of this series, continue reading to get my Padres vs Twins prediction.
Our Padres vs Twins Pick
- Pick: Minnesota Twins moneyline
- Confidence: 4 out of 5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins
- Date & Time: Sunday, August 31, 2025, 1:05 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers:
- San Diego Padres — David Morgan
- Minnesota Twins — Joe Ryan
- Stadium: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
- Broadcast: Roku
Key Storylines
- Padres hitters broke the game open on Saturday with a seven-run seventh inning capped by Elias Díaz’s second homer of the night.
- Joe Ryan has been Minnesota’s anchor in the rotation with double-digit wins and an ERA of 3.22 this season.
- The Padres enter this game down by just one game to the LA Dodgers in the NL West standings. They could be tied with the Dodgers by the end of the day.
Pitching Matchup
Joe Ryan comes into this start with a 12-7 record and an ERA of 3.22. He is a high-volume strikeout pitcher who limits free passes and keeps the ball on the ground when contact is made. David Morgan is a rookie arm for the Padres who has posted a sub-3.00 ERA in 39.2 major league innings. He is averaging around a strikeout per inning. The Twins have a clear advantage on the mound here.
Key Players
- Elias Díaz: He is swinging with confidence after a two-homer night for San Diego on Saturday.
- Byron Buxton: The Twins’ leader in home runs, RBI, and batting average had a home run on Saturday despite the Twins’ loss.
Recent Team Streaks
- The Padres ended a two-game losing streak with their win over the Twins on Saturday.
- Minnesota has gone 2-3 over their last five games and will look for a series win with a victory here.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Elias Díaz | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Joe Ryan | Over 6.5 Strikeouts |
| Byron Buxton | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The season series between these teams is tied 1-1.
- This is the final game of the regular-season series between these teams for the year.
- Both games in this series have gone over their totals.
Padres vs Twins Model Projection
Score Projection: San Diego Padres 4 — Minnesota Twins 5
Win Probability: San Diego Padres 43%, Minnesota Twins 57%
Final Thoughts
I give the Twins a slight edge in this matchup thanks to their starting pitching advantage. The Twins have a steady veteran arm on the mound in Joe Ryan today. He should be able to get the job done against a largely unproven rookie arm for the Padres. The Twins moneyline is my top pick for this contest in the betting markets.
