San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick & Preview – 4/16/2024

San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Overview

• Date: April 16, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dylan Cease - Padres
  • Wade Miley - Brewers
• Run Line: Padres -1.5 135, Brewers 1.5 -155
• Money Line: Padres -130, Brewers 110
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• San Diego Padres - 54%
• Milwaukee Brewers - 46%

Projected Win %:

• San Diego Padres - 56%
• Milwaukee Brewers - 44%

San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated National League matchup, the Milwaukee Brewers are set to face off against the San Diego Padres on April 16, 2024, at American Family Field. As the home team, the Brewers will look to continue their impressive season with a record of 10-5. On the other hand, the Padres have had an above-average season so far, with a record of 10-9.

The Brewers are projected to start left-handed pitcher Wade Miley, who has been performing well with an ERA of 2.25 this season. However, his xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances. The Padres, on the other hand, will start right-handed pitcher Dylan Cease, who has an impressive ERA of 2.16. Similar to Miley, Cease's xFIP suggests that he may not be able to sustain his current performance level.

This game marks the second matchup between these two teams, with the Padres emerging victorious in their last game with a score of 7-3. The Brewers will be looking to bounce back from this loss and improve their performance against the Padres.

Both teams have showcased their offensive prowess this season. The Brewers rank as the second-best offense in MLB, despite their lower team batting average. They have been successful in stealing bases, ranking tenth in the league. On the other hand, the Padres rank seventh in offense and have been effective in hitting home runs and stealing bases.

When it comes to the pitching staff, the Brewers have a strong bullpen, ranking eighth in MLB according to the advanced-stat Power Rankings. The Padres' bullpen is also highly regarded, ranking sixth in the league.

In terms of betting odds, the Brewers are considered underdogs with a projected win probability of 44% according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. However, the current moneyline suggests a close game, with the Brewers at +105 and the Padres at -125.

Based on the projections, the Brewers are expected to score an average of 3.67 runs, while the Padres are projected to score 4.42 runs. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average expectation for total runs scored in the game.

As the game approaches, all eyes will be on the pitching matchup between Miley and Cease. The Brewers will need Miley to maintain his solid performance, while the Padres will rely on Cease to continue his dominance on the mound. With both teams having strong offenses, this game has the potential to be an exciting and closely contested matchup.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

When estimating his strikeout skill, Dylan Cease projects as the 11th-best starter in the league currently, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Milwaukee Brewers in this game has an estimated true talent wOBA of .313, which is quite a bit worse than their actual wOBA of .359 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 51 games (+8.93 Units / 14% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 77 of their last 145 games (+14.20 Units / 9% ROI)
• Eguy Rosario has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 4 of his last 5 away games (+2.75 Units / 38% ROI)

Padres vs Brewers Prediction: Padres 4.42 - Brewers 3.67

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.