San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/10/2024

San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Details

• Date: August 10, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matt Waldron - Padres
  • Roddery Munoz - Marlins

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

As the Miami Marlins prepare to face off against the San Diego Padres on August 10, 2024, the stakes are high for both teams. The Marlins, sitting at 43-74, are struggling this season, while the Padres boast a solid 65-52 record. Yesterday, the Padres secured a 6-2 victory over the Marlins, showcasing their offensive prowess in the 10th inning and leaving Miami looking for answers.

The Marlins will send Roddery Munoz to the mound, who has had a rough year, reflected in his 5.68 ERA and a troubling 2-6 record over 13 starts. Munoz's advanced metrics suggest he has faced some bad luck, but he still projects to allow 3.0 earned runs over 4.9 innings today. Compounding his challenges, he faces a Padres lineup ranked 1st in MLB in team batting average, which could spell trouble for the right-handed pitcher.

On the other side, the Padres will counter with Matt Waldron, who has been effective this season with a 3.79 ERA. Waldron's last outing was impressive, as he allowed just 1 earned run over 6 innings, striking out 7 batters. His ability to limit damage will be crucial, especially against a Marlins offense that ranks 29th in MLB this season, struggling to generate consistent scoring opportunities.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the projections favor the Padres significantly, suggesting they could score around 5.27 runs on average in this matchup. With the Marlins' best hitter, Jake Burger, performing well recently but still limited by the team's overall struggles, it may be challenging for Miami to keep pace. As the game unfolds, the Padres will look to capitalize on their current momentum and the Marlins will aim to turn their season around, making this an intriguing matchup to watch.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Matt Waldron's high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (66.8% this year) should work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

David Peralta is apt to have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Projected catcher Kyle Higashioka projects as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Among all starters, Roddery Munoz's fastball velocity of 94.9 mph ranks in the 84th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Otto Lopez has had some very poor luck this year. His .247 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .304.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Miami's 88.4-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in baseball: #24 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 55 games at home (+20.60 Units / 34% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 away games (+13.10 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+10.95 Units / 64% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 5.28 vs Miami Marlins 4

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.