San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Prediction – 7/21/2025

The San Diego Padres travel to face the Miami Marlins in the opening game of a three-game set at loanDepot Park on Monday. The Marlins enter as slight favorites despite having a worse record than the Padres on the season. But Miami has been playing better baseball of late and will look to keep doing so here. Continue reading to get my Padres vs Marlins prediction for Monday night.

Our Padres vs Marlins Pick

• Pick: Marlins moneyline
• Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres
• Date & Time: Monday, July 21, 2025, 6:40 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Eury Pérez vs Randy Vasquez
• Stadium: loanDepot Park, Miami, FL
• Broadcast: FDSFL and SDPA

Key Storylines

• Eury Pérez’s surge: Eury Perez has pitched very well of late for the Marlins. He is 3-2 with a 3.18 ERA and is averaging over a strikeout per inning in 2025. He’ll look to keep trending in the right direction agaisnt a potent Padres offense.
• Randy Vasquez to start: San Diego is going with Randy Vasquez on the bump in this game. Vasquez has been rock solid for them this year. He has a 3.80 ERA and is better than his 3-4 record would indicate.
• Offensive consistency: The Marlins have been scoring in bunches of late. They have scored five runs or more in three of their last five games and will look to continue their power surge here.
• Luis Arraez returns: One of the more interesting storylines in this game is the return of Luis Arraez to Miami. Arraz was the table setter for the Marlins lineup not long ago. But he was traded to San Diego and will face his former club tonight.

Recent Team Streaks

• Marlins: The Marlins had an extended winning streak snapped by the Kansas City Royals on Sunday.
• Padres: The Padres have alternated wins and losses over their last five games.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• The Padres lead the season series between these teams 2-1.
• The Padres are 31-31 in night games this year. The Marlins are 22-32 at night.
• This is the first time these teams will have played in Miami this season.

Padres vs Marlins Model Projection

Score Projection: Marlins 5 – Padres 4
Win Probability: Marlins 51%, Padres 49%

Final Thoughts

Do not let the records fool you when you go to bet on this matchup. Miami is playing much better than their sub-.500 record would lead you to believe. I expect the Marlins to win at home in this game behind another solid outing from Eury Perez. The Marlins would be just five games away from the .500 mark with a win here and I expect them to get it.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.