San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Pick – 8/15/2025
A huge series in the NL West will begin on Friday night when the San Diego Padres visit the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Padres have overtaken the Dodgers atop the NL West standings and will look to continue their winning ways to extend their division lead. But they will have to beat one of the best pitchers of his generation in order to accomplish that feat. Continue reading to get my Padres vs Dodgers prediction before this massive matchup begins.
Our Padres vs Dodgers Pick
- Pick: Under 9.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
- Date & Time: Friday, August 15, 2025, 10:10 PM EDT
- Starting Pitchers: Undecided (Padres) vs. Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers)
- Stadium: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
- Broadcast: MLB Network
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
Clayton Kershaw is 6-2 with a 3.14 ERA and remains a strong presence for the Dodgers on the mound. His experience and composure in high-pressure situations has been a question mark in the past for the Dodgers and Kershaw will need to be at his best in this game. The Padres have yet to decide on a starting pitcher officially for this game. Michael King is going back to the IL and that has thrown a wrench into their pitching plans.
Playoff Race
These teams are separated by one game in the NL West standings. The Padres hold the lead in the division entering this weekend and the Dodgers are in the second NL Wild Card slot. But the standings could look completely different by the time the next few days are through.
Recent Team Streaks
The Padres have been on a tear. They have won five games in a row and have one of the best bullpens in all of baseball. The Dodgers have lost four games in a row and have seen their lead in the NL West slip away as a result.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | Under 1.5 Total Bases |
| Manny Machado | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Clayton Kershaw | Under 5.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Dodgers hold a 5-2 lead in their season series against the Padres.
- The last two games between these teams have gone under their respective totals.
- The Padres are 31-32 on the road this season and can get to .500 on the road with a win.
- Los Angeles is 38-24 at home in 2025.
Padres vs Dodgers Model Projection
- Score Projection: Padres 5 – Dodgers 4
- Win Probability: Padres 53%, Dodgers 47%
Final Thoughts
These teams are going in two very different directions right now. The Padres are peaking in the second half of the season and the Dodgers are regressing in a big way. I do think that the starting pitching situation for the Padres makes it tough to back them confidently here. Instead, I am going to take the under and rely on the Padres bullpen to keep the Dodgers and their lineup at bay.
