San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Pick – 6/19/2025

On June 19, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the San Diego Padres at Dodger Stadium for the fourth game of their series. The Dodgers currently sit at 46-29, enjoying a fantastic season and holding the 1st best offense in MLB. Meanwhile, the Padres are 39-34, having an above-average campaign but struggling to keep pace with their rivals. In their last matchup, the Dodgers showcased their strength with a dominant performance, solidifying their status as the team to beat in this National League West rivalry.

The Dodgers are slated to start Yoshinobu Yamamoto, one of the elite pitchers in the league, currently ranked 7th in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite his solid 6-5 record and impressive 2.64 ERA, projections suggest he might be due for a downturn, as both his SIERA and FIP indicate he has been a bit fortunate this season. Nevertheless, Yamamoto's high strikeout rate of 28.6% could pose difficulties for a Padres offense that ranks 3rd lowest in strikeouts.

On the other side, Ryan Bergert takes the mound for the Padres. Although he boasts a commendable 2.33 ERA, his underlying metrics tell a different story, with a high 4.68 xFIP suggesting that he might not sustain this success. Bergert also struggles with walks, which could hurt him against a patient Dodgers lineup that ranks 2nd in walks drawn.

With the Dodgers' offense leading the league in home runs and their bullpen ranked 7th, they come into this game as substantial favorites with a moneyline of -240 and an implied team total of 5.43 runs. The projections favor the Dodgers to continue their winning ways, while the Padres will need to find a way to overcome their offensive inefficiencies to keep this contest competitive.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen projects as the 2nd-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Los Angeles Dodgers are expected to tally the most runs (6.17 on average) on the slate.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 35 games at home (+11.00 Units / 28% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.60 Units / 18% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.15, Los Angeles Dodgers 5.98

• Date: June 19, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Bergert - Padres
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Dodgers

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