San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Pick – 6/18/2025

On June 18, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the San Diego Padres at Dodger Stadium for the third game of their series. The Dodgers currently sit at 45-29, showcasing a strong season, while the Padres hold a record of 39-33, indicating an above-average performance. In their last matchup, the Dodgers emerged victorious, further solidifying their dominance in the National League West.

The Dodgers are projected to start Emmet Sheehan, who holds a Power Rankings position of #66 among approximately 350 MLB pitchers, indicating he is above average. However, his projections for this game suggest he may struggle, averaging only 4.6 innings pitched with 2.3 earned runs allowed and 4.4 hits, which raises some concerns. On the other hand, Stephen Kolek, the Padres' starter, has had a mixed season. While his ERA of 3.50 is impressive, his xFIP of 4.34 suggests he may have been fortunate, and his projections indicate he will allow 3.5 earned runs and 5.9 hits, which could be detrimental against a powerful Dodgers lineup.

The Dodgers' offense is currently ranked 1st in MLB, excelling in team batting average and home runs, with a total of 115 home runs this season. In contrast, the Padres rank 20th in overall offense and 27th in home runs, which could create a significant advantage for the Dodgers. With such a potent lineup, the Dodgers are expected to capitalize on Kolek's struggles.

Additionally, the projections indicate a high Game Total of 9.5 runs, reflecting the potential for a high-scoring affair. Betting odds favor the Dodgers significantly, with a moneyline of -175, suggesting confidence in their ability to secure the win. This matchup presents an intriguing dynamic, as the Dodgers look to maintain their strong season against a Padres team that has yet to find its offensive rhythm.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Stephen Kolek is an extreme groundball pitcher (49.4% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #2 HR venue among all major league stadiums — in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Jose Iglesias's average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 85.8-mph average last year has fallen to 82.7-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The San Diego Padres bullpen projects as the 2nd-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Emmet Sheehan in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his strikeout skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Batters such as Max Muncy with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Stephen Kolek who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Will Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 25 games at home (+13.60 Units / 49% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 away games (+9.50 Units / 44% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.85 Units / 24% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.85, Los Angeles Dodgers 6.26

• Date: June 18, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Stephen Kolek - Padres
  • Emmet Sheehan - Dodgers

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