San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Pick – 6/17/2025

The Los Angeles Dodgers will host the San Diego Padres for the second game of their series on June 17, 2025, following a solid 6-3 victory by the Dodgers on June 16. Currently, the Dodgers sit atop the National League West with a record of 44-29, showcasing their dominance this season. In contrast, the Padres, with a record of 39-32, find themselves in a competitive spot but are looking to improve upon their above-average performance.

Emmet Sheehan is projected to take the mound for the Dodgers. Although he ranks as the 65th best starting pitcher in MLB and has shown flashes of potential, his projections indicate he may only pitch around 4.6 innings and allow approximately 2.3 earned runs. However, Sheehan's last outing saw him shine, going 6 innings with only 2 earned runs and 10 strikeouts, which could signal a turnaround for the young right-hander.

Randy Vasquez will start for the Padres, but his season has been rocky. While his ERA sits at an impressive 3.57, his xFIP of 5.61 points to underlying issues, suggesting he may not replicate this success moving forward. The Dodgers' potent offense, ranked 1st in MLB, has the potential to exploit Vasquez's high flyball rate and control problems, making it a tough matchup for him.

With the Dodgers boasting the best offensive statistics in the league, including leading in home runs with 112, they are well-positioned to capitalize on Vasquez's weaknesses. Given these factors and the Dodgers' strong bullpen, they enter this contest as significant favorites, looking to extend their winning streak against a Padres team that will need to find its stride quickly.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Randy Vasquez's higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (65.8% vs. 55.9% last year) ought to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Extreme groundball batters like Tyler Wade tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Emmet Sheehan.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Manny Machado hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 93rd percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

In the last 7 days, Max Muncy's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.9% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The best projected offense of all teams today in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games at home (+11.60 Units / 45% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 25 away games (+9.05 Units / 31% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 away games (+10.35 Units / 129% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.73, Los Angeles Dodgers 6.16

• Date: June 17, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres
  • Emmet Sheehan - Dodgers

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