San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Pick – 6/16/2025

On June 16, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the San Diego Padres in the first game of a crucial series for both teams. The Dodgers currently sit at 43-29, enjoying a solid season and coming off a victory against the San Francisco Giants in their last game on June 15, where they edged out the competition with a 5-4 win. Conversely, the Padres are 39-31 and also having a good season, having secured an impressive 8-2 win in their previous outing against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Shohei Ohtani is set to make his pitching debut for the season against the Padres tonight. Ohtani has been playing as an outfielder throughout this season, but has not pitched in a long time after dealing with some injury concerns that put a pause on that facet of his career. His return to the mound will generate plenty of intrigue surrounding this game, as the baseball world waits to see how he performs in his return to the bump.

On the other hand, Dylan Cease is set to start for the Padres. His 2-5 record and average ERA of 4.28 don’t inspire confidence, especially against a potent Dodgers lineup that leads MLB in home runs with 112 this season. Cease’s projections indicate he may struggle today, particularly given the Dodgers’ offensive prowess.

The Dodgers’ offense ranks 1st in MLB, showcasing their ability to score runs, while the Padres, ranked 20th in the same category, may find it challenging to keep pace. The current Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a high-scoring affair. As betting favorites with a moneyline of -150, the Dodgers are projected to score a lofty 4.89 runs, compared to the Padres’ average of 4.11 runs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Among all the teams today, the strongest infield defense is that of the San Diego Padres.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 87.9-mph average last season has fallen off to 85.2-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Manny Machado hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 91st percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Max Muncy is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of San Diego (#1-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Los Angeles Dodgers projected batting order grades out as the best on the slate in terms of overall batting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+9.60 Units / 41% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 22 away games (+10.05 Units / 39% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 25 away games (+16.50 Units / 52% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.81, Los Angeles Dodgers 5.18

• Date: June 16, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dylan Cease - Padres
  • Shohei Ohtani - Dodgers

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