San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/17/2024

• Date: August 17, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dylan Cease - Padres
  • Kyle Freeland - Rockies

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres travel to Coors Field to face off against the Colorado Rockies in a pivotal National League West matchup on August 17, 2024. The Padres are in solid contention with a 69-54 record, while the Rockies have struggled significantly this season, sitting at 45-78. The Rockies have had a rough season this year, but they did manage to upset the Padres yesterday, a result they will aim to replicate in this contest.

On the mound, Colorado is set to start Kyle Freeland, who has had a disappointing season, posting a 3-4 record with a 5.75 ERA over 13 starts. He is projected to pitch an average of 5.0 innings, allowing 3.4 earned runs, and striking out only 3.0 batters per outing. Notably, Freeland will face a high-strikeout Padres offense that ranks as the 8th best in MLB, presenting a challenging matchup given that Freeland has a low strikeout rate of 19.0%.

Dylan Cease, projected to start for the Padres, has been a bright spot for his team with an impressive 3.41 ERA and a strong 11-9 win/loss record over 25 games. The projections indicate he'll deliver an average of 5.5 innings while striking out 7.1 batters and allowing just 2.8 earned runs. Cease’s ability to generate strikeouts could prove pivotal against a Rockies team that ranks 3rd in MLB for strikeouts.

Adding to the intrigue, the Rockies offense, while ranking at a mediocre 17th overall, has shown some power with the 10th-most home runs this season. In contrast, the Padres boast the top batting average in MLB, which could spell trouble for Freeland and his struggling bullpen, currently ranked 25th in the league.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Dylan Cease has utilized his slider 7.5% more often this year (46.1%) than he did last year (38.6%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

The Colorado Rockies don't have any same-handed relievers in their bullpen, so Luis Arraez is assured to never face a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the San Diego Padres with a 17.9% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Kyle Freeland's fastball velocity has spiked 2.9 mph this season (91.1 mph) over where it was last season (88.2 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Ezequiel Tovar has experienced some positive variance this year. His .321 figure has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .277.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies' bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst among all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 41 games at home (+8.20 Units / 20% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 56 games (+12.90 Units / 17% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 33 games (+12.90 Units / 25% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 6.62 vs Colorado Rockies 4.89

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