San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Prediction – 5/11/2025

As the Colorado Rockies host the San Diego Padres at Coors Field on May 11, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams, albeit for very different reasons. The Rockies are struggling with a record of 6-33 this season, a stark contrast to the Padres' impressive 25-13 mark. The Rockies are in the midst of a dreadful campaign, while the Padres are riding high with a strong start.

In their last matchup, the Rockies faced off against the Padres yesterday, and the result was not in their favor. They are projected to start German Marquez, who has endured a rough season, holding an 0-6 record and a troubling ERA of 9.90. While Marquez’s 5.28 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky, the reality is he faces a potent Padres offense that ranks 3rd in MLB in batting average and is likely to take advantage of Marquez’s struggles.

On the other side, Nick Pivetta is set to take the mound for San Diego. With a 5-1 record and an impressive ERA of 2.01, Pivetta has been a significant asset for the Padres. His high strikeout rate of 28.4% plays directly into the Rockies’ weakness, as they have the highest strikeout rate in the league. This matchup heavily favors the Padres, especially given the Rockies' offensive struggles, ranking 28th in MLB.

The game total is set at a high 11.5 runs, indicating expectations for a high-scoring affair. The Rockies are a massive underdog with a moneyline of +225, while the Padres are favored at -265. With both teams’ current trajectories, the Padres appear primed to capitalize on the Rockies' misfortunes, making them a strong candidate for bettors looking for a favorable outcome.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Nick Pivetta is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.8% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #4 HR venue among all stadiums in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Gavin Sheets is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 61% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the San Diego Padres are expected to score the most runs (6.52 on average) on the slate today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

German Marquez's high utilization percentage of his fastball (57.9% this year) is likely weakening his results, considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Ryan McMahon has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.8-mph to 101.8-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Compared to their .315 overall projected rate, the .295 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected offense in this game suggests this version of the lineup a good deal missing some of their usual firepower.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+9.27 Units / 22% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games (+8.32 Units / 20% ROI)
• Adael Amador has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 53% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 6.52, Colorado Rockies 5.03

• Date: May 11, 2025
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Pivetta - Padres
  • German Marquez - Rockies

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