San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Betting Pick & Preview – 8/18/2024

• Date: August 18, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joe Musgrove - Padres
  • Bradley Blalock - Rockies

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres visit Coors Field to face the Colorado Rockies on August 18, 2024, both teams find themselves in different realms of the standings. The Padres are in a solid position with a record of 70-54, while the Rockies languish at 45-79, struggling through a disappointing season. In their last game, the Padres secured a victory over the Rockies, continuing to leverage their strong offensive capabilities.

Starting for the Rockies is Bradley Blalock, who has had a rocky year, ranking as the 256th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Blalock will be facing a Padres lineup that ranks 8th overall in offensive production and leads the league with a .300 team batting average. His projected 4.3 innings pitched, along with an average of 3.0 earned runs allowed, could put the Rockies in a tough spot. Blalock, a low-strikeout pitcher, might struggle against a Padres offense that has the least strikeouts in the league, further complicating his matchup.

On the other side, Joe Musgrove is slated to start for San Diego. With a 3-4 record and an ERA of 5.20, he is far from invincible, but the projections suggest he may perform better in this outing. Musgrove’s ability to manage contact will be crucial against a Rockies offense that ranks 3rd in MLB for strikeouts. Despite the Rockies maintaining an average rank in team batting, they are reliant on their power, ranking 10th in home runs but struggling to capitalize on it consistently.

Given the disparity in performance and the Padres' robust bullpen, ranked 3rd best in MLB, San Diego appears to be the clear favorite in this matchup. With a high Game Total set at 11.5 runs, bettors might expect a high-scoring affair, leaning heavily towards the Padres' offensive prowess.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Joe Musgrove to be on a bit of a short leash in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 80 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Kyle Higashioka has a ton of pop (90th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (27.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Bradley Blalock doesn't generate many whiffs (23rd percentile K%) — great news for Higashioka.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The San Diego Padres offense projects for the most runs of all teams on the slate today, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Bradley Blalock in the 17th percentile as it relates to his strikeout talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Jordan Beck has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.5-mph dropping to 69.1-mph over the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Today’s version of the Rockies projected lineup is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .297 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .318 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 52 games at home (+6.45 Units / 12% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 50 games (+13.30 Units / 20% ROI)
• Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+13.25 Units / 36% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 6.57 vs Colorado Rockies 5.26

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