San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Betting Pick & Preview – 4/25/2024

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Overview

• Date: April 25, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres
  • Dakota Hudson - Rockies
• Run Line: Padres -1.5 100, Rockies 1.5 -120
• Money Line: Padres -150, Rockies 125
• Total (Over/Under): 10.5

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• San Diego Padres - 57%
• Colorado Rockies - 43%

Projected Win %:

• San Diego Padres - 51.43%
• Colorado Rockies - 48.57%

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Game Preview & Prediction

On April 25, 2024, the Colorado Rockies will face off against the San Diego Padres in a National League West matchup at Coors Field. The Rockies, with a disappointing record of 6-19 this season, are having a rough time, while the Padres, boasting a 14-13 record, are performing above average.

The Rockies are projected to start right-handed pitcher Dakota Hudson, who has had a tough season so far. Hudson has started four games this year and holds a win/loss record of 0-4. His ERA of 5.06 reflects his struggles on the mound. On the other side, the Padres are projected to start right-handed pitcher Randy Vasquez, who has started one game this season and holds a win/loss record of 0-1. Vasquez has an impressive ERA of 1.80, but his xFIP suggests that he may not perform as well going forward.

In terms of offense, the Rockies rank as the 23rd best in MLB this season, while the Padres rank 8th. However, the Rockies have struggled in key areas such as team batting average, home runs, and stolen bases, ranking poorly in these categories. The Padres, on the other hand, have been more consistent and rank well in team batting average, home runs, and stolen bases.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Rockies rank 9th best in MLB, while the Padres rank 5th best. Both teams have solid relief pitching, but the Padres have a slight edge in this area.

Looking at the betting odds, the Rockies are considered underdogs with a current moneyline of +125, giving them an implied win probability of 43%. The Padres, as the favorites, have a moneyline of -150, with an implied win probability of 57%. Based on the current odds, the Rockies have a high implied team total of 4.82 runs, while the Padres have a higher implied team total of 5.68 runs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

With 6 bats who bat from the same side in the opposing team's projected offense, Randy Vasquez ought to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Typically, batters like Tyler Wade who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Dakota Hudson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that the San Diego Padres will tally 6.04 runs on average in this matchup: the most of all teams playing today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Out of every team today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the Colorado Rockies.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Charlie Blackmon will have the handedness advantage against Randy Vasquez today.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Compared to their .314 overall projected rate, the .295 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected offense today suggests this version of the lineup significantly weaker than usual.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games at home (+8.25 Units / 63% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 70 of their last 131 games (+12.55 Units / 9% ROI)

Padres vs Rockies Prediction: Padres 6.04 - Rockies 5.56

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