San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/20/2024

San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians Details

• Date: July 20, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dylan Cease - Padres
  • Gavin Williams - Guardians

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

On July 20, 2024, the Cleveland Guardians will host the San Diego Padres at Progressive Field for the second game of their interleague series. The Guardians are in the midst of a great season, boasting a 59-37 record, while the Padres have been more average at 50-50. Given the Guardians' strong year, this game holds significance for their playoff push.

Cleveland's Gavin Williams, a right-handed pitcher ranked as the 87th best starter in MLB, will take the mound. Despite Williams' above-average ranking, he has struggled with allowing hits and walks, projected at 4.8 hits and 1.5 walks over 5.0 innings according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. However, he has shown a knack for limiting earned runs, with a projection of just 2.2.

San Diego counters with Dylan Cease, an elite right-hander ranked 15th among all starting pitchers. Cease is projected to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 5.7 batters. Still, he shares a weakness with Williams in terms of allowing hits and walks, projected at 5.2 hits and 1.8 walks.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 16th in MLB in team batting average—an average ranking—but they've shown power, sitting 10th in home runs and 9th in stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Padres feature a potent lineup, ranking 2nd in batting average and 10th in home runs, though they are just 12th in stolen bases.

Betting markets view this game as a toss-up, with both teams' moneyline set at -110, implying a 50% win probability for each. The game total is 8.0 runs, a standard expectation suggesting a balanced contest.

Given this setup, the Guardians' solid season and balanced offense provide a slight edge, especially with their ability to capitalize on Cease's occasional vulnerability to hits and walks. Look for a tightly contested game with Cleveland potentially leveraging their home-field advantage to clinch a win.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Compared to league average, Dylan Cease has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an additional 10.3 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

In the last week's worth of games, Jackson Merrill's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.1% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Today, Jackson Merrill is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.6% rate (99th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Gavin Williams's slider utilization has fallen by 21.7% from last year to this one (22.1% to 0.4%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Steven Kwan has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 87.5-mph average to last season's 85.3-mph EV.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Cleveland Guardians with a 18.2% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 94 games (+12.92 Units / 10% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 away games (+6.55 Units / 43% ROI)
• Jake Cronenworth has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 17 games (+8.90 Units / 52% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.31 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.29

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.