San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, Odds & Picks – 5/22/2024

San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 22, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael King - Padres
  • Nick Martinez - Reds

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

In a National League matchup scheduled for May 22, 2024, the Cincinnati Reds will be hosting the San Diego Padres at the Great American Ball Park. The Reds, with a disappointing 20-28 record this season, are having a rough time, while the Padres boast an average season so far with a 25-26 record.

The Reds are projected to start right-handed pitcher Nick Martinez, who has had both starting and relief appearances this year. Martinez has shown promise with a 4.23 ERA, but his advanced-stat Power Rankings place him at #159 out of approximately 350 pitchers in MLB. On the other hand, Michael King, also a right-handed pitcher, will take the mound for the Padres. King has a slightly better record this season with a 3-4 win-loss record and a 4.31 ERA. According to the advanced-stat Power Rankings, King ranks at #50 among MLB pitchers.

The Reds will rely on their offense, which ranks as the #28 best in MLB this season. However, they do have some positives, as they rank #14 in team batting average and #1 in stolen bases. The Padres, on the other hand, have the #8 best offense in MLB, ranking #20 in team batting average and #10 in home runs.

When analyzing the pitchers, it is interesting to note that Martinez has been unlucky this season, as indicated by his 3.24 xERA and a 2.87 FIP that are lower than his 4.23 ERA. This suggests that he is likely to perform better going forward. On the other hand, King has been fortunate, with his 4.97 FIP higher than his 4.31 ERA, indicating that he may not perform as well as expected in the future.

In terms of team rankings, the Reds' bullpen is considered average, ranking #15 in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Meanwhile, the Padres' bullpen is ranked higher at #8.

Taking all factors into account, the game total for this matchup is set at 9.5 runs, suggesting a potentially high-scoring game. The Reds have a current moneyline of +105, with an implied win probability of 47%, while the Padres have a moneyline of -125 and an implied win probability of 53%.

Overall, this game presents an interesting matchup between the struggling Reds and the average-performing Padres. While the Padres might have the edge with their offense and starting pitcher, the Reds' stolen base threat and pitching indicators suggest they could potentially challenge their higher-ranked opponents. It will be a close game that could go either way, making it an intriguing matchup for both fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Michael King's fastball velocity has fallen 1.9 mph this season (91.6 mph) below where it was last season (93.5 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Luis Campusano's quickness has decreased this season. His 25.75 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.08 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 11th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Throwing 95.2 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Nick Martinez falls in the 93rd percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Mike Ford has experienced some negative variance in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 34.3 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a good deal lower than his 44.4 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

It may be sensible to expect improved performance for the Cincinnati Reds offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the unluckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 14 games at home (+9.95 Units / 56% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.30 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+12.00 Units / 24% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 5.43 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.64

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