San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction – 6/28/2025

The Cincinnati Reds will host the San Diego Padres at Great American Ball Park on June 28, 2025, in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup. Both teams are currently above average, with the Reds sitting at 43-39 and the Padres at 44-37. This game marks the second in the series, and the Reds will be looking to build momentum after a solid performance yesterday.

Starting for Cincinnati is Andrew Abbott, who has been impressive this season with a 7-1 record and an excellent ERA of 1.79. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit lucky, as his xFIP stands at 4.03, indicating potential regression. Abbott's high flyball rate could work in his favor against a Padres offense that has struggled to generate power, ranking 26th in home runs with just 69 this year.

On the other side, the Padres will counter with Randy Vasquez, who has had a rough season. With a 3-4 record and a 3.60 ERA, he has not been as effective, and his xFIP of 5.67 suggests he might be in for a tough outing. Vasquez projects to pitch poorly, averaging just 4.5 innings while allowing 3.3 earned runs and 5.4 hits per game.

The Reds' offense has been ranked 13th in MLB, showing their ability to score runs, while the Padres sit at 21st, indicating their struggles at the plate. The projections suggest a high game total of 9.5 runs, reflecting expectations for offensive production. Cincinnati is favored with a moneyline of -150, indicating confidence in their ability to secure a win against a struggling San Diego lineup.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Randy Vasquez has used his off-speed and breaking balls 9.4% more often this year (65.3%) than he did last season (55.9%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Extreme flyball batters like Jose Iglesias generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Andrew Abbott.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jackson Merrill has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Andrew Abbott's 91.7-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1.1-mph fall off from last season's 92.8-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (52% of the time), but he is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Cincinnati Reds have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Will Benson, Tyler Stephenson).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 62 games (+8.45 Units / 12% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 46 games (+10.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+8.50 Units / 37% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 5.58, Cincinnati Reds 5.7

• Date: June 28, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds

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