San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction – 6/27/2025

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to face off against the San Diego Padres on June 27, 2025, both teams find themselves in competitive standings, but not quite contending for the division title. The Reds currently sit at 42-39, while the Padres hold a record of 44-36, both looking to solidify their postseason hopes.

On the mound, the matchup features Nick Martinez for the Reds and Dylan Cease for the Padres. Martinez, ranked as the 97th best starting pitcher in MLB, brings a 4-8 record and a 4.40 ERA into this game, with projections estimating he'll pitch around 5.0 innings and yield 3.1 earned runs, which is far from encouraging. He'll face a Padres lineup that, despite ranking as the 21st best offense in MLB, has a low strikeout rate, potentially giving Martinez a tough challenge.

Conversely, Cease, rated as the 20th best starting pitcher, has a 3-6 record and a slightly higher ERA of 4.43, but he possesses strong peripherals that suggest better days ahead. Projected to pitch 5.4 innings with 6.5 strikeouts on average, he may hold the upper hand today, especially against a Reds offense ranked 15th overall.

With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs and a high implied team total for the Padres at 4.81 runs, bettors might lean towards the Padres as they seek to capitalize on their pitcher’s edge while the Reds aim to prove their worth.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The San Diego Padres outfield defense profiles as the best out of every team in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 87.9-mph figure last season has dropped off to 85.3-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Martin Maldonado pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.4% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Martinez is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #1 HR venue in the majors today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Extreme groundball bats like Elly De La Cruz tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Dylan Cease.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Cincinnati Reds have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Tyler Stephenson, Matt McLain, Will Benson).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games (+9.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games (+9.00 Units / 17% ROI)
• Gavin Lux has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games at home (+9.00 Units / 225% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 5.42, Cincinnati Reds 4.65

• Date: June 27, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dylan Cease - Padres
  • Nick Martinez - Reds

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