San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds Pick – 6/29/2025

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the San Diego Padres on June 29, 2025, both teams are looking to gain momentum in their respective campaigns. The Reds currently sit at 43-40, while the Padres hold a slightly better record at 45-37. Despite this, the Reds have shown signs of an above-average season and are projected to have an impressive outing with Nick Lodolo on the mound. Lodolo, ranked as the 81st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, has a solid ERA of 3.63 this year. He aims to build on his recent performances, although he has struggled with strikeouts, averaging just 3.9 per game.

In their previous matchup, the Padres defeated the Reds, and this game marks the third in the series. Both teams have had their share of ups and downs, but the Reds' offense, ranked 13th in MLB, is expected to capitalize on the Padres' struggles, especially given that Stephen Kolek, projected to start for San Diego, ranks among the worst pitchers in MLB. Kolek has a 3.95 ERA and has been inconsistent, allowing an average of 5.6 hits and 1.7 walks per game.

The projections indicate a high-scoring affair, with a Game Total set at 9.0 runs. With the Reds holding a current moneyline of -135, they are favored to win, reflecting confidence in their ability to leverage home-field advantage and Lodolo's potential to outperform Kolek. This matchup could prove crucial as both teams vie for positioning in a competitive National League landscape.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Stephen Kolek is an extreme groundball pitcher (48.8% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Great American Ball Park — the #1 HR venue in the league — in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

There has been a decrease in Jose Iglesias's average exit velocity this season, from 85.8 mph last year to 83.5 mph now

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen projects as the 10th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Nick Lodolo has relied on his secondary pitches 6.8% more often this season (50.5%) than he did last year (43.7%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Extreme flyball batters like Elly De La Cruz tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Stephen Kolek.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Spencer Steer pulls many of his flyballs (36.5% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 73 games (+8.05 Units / 10% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+10.20 Units / 17% ROI)
• Jake Cronenworth has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+10.10 Units / 253% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 5.49, Cincinnati Reds 5.28

• Date: June 29, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Stephen Kolek - Padres
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.