San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Prediction – 4/4/2025

San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

On April 4, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the San Diego Padres at Wrigley Field in what marks the first game of their series. The Cubs currently sit at 5-4 for the season, while the Padres have surged to a remarkable 7-0 start, showcasing their dominance early on. In their last game, the Cubs’ best hitter continued to shine, racking up 10 hits and 10 runs over the past week, contributing significantly to their offensive output.

The matchup features Shota Imanaga for the Cubs, who has been impressive with a 1-0 record and a stellar ERA of 0.82 over two starts. However, advanced projections indicate that he may be due for regression, as his xFIP of 6.00 suggests he has benefited from some good fortune. Meanwhile, Randy Vasquez is set to take the mound for the Padres. Although he has yet to allow a run this season, his xFIP of 6.38 indicates that he, too, may not be able to maintain this level of performance.

Offensively, both teams present contrasting strengths. The Cubs rank 15th in MLB in terms of overall offense but excel with a 5th rank in home runs. This power could play a crucial role against Vasquez, who has a tendency to give up fly balls. Conversely, the Padres boast a 9th-ranked offense, highlighted by a 5th-best batting average, but have struggled with home runs, sitting at 30th overall in that category.

Given the Cubs' solid performance at home and the potential for Vasquez to falter against their powerful lineup, Chicago looks to be in a favorable position to capitalize on their home field advantage, despite their lower implied team total of 3.62 runs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Randy Vasquez is an extreme flyball pitcher (32.3% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #22 HR venue in the league in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Extreme flyball batters like Jose Iglesias are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Shota Imanaga.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The San Diego Padres (17.8 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 2nd-least strikeout-prone team of batters of the day.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

With 7 batters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Shota Imanaga will be at a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The switch-hitting Ian Happ will get to bat from his good side (0) today against Randy Vasquez.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Chicago Cubs bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 74 games at home (+17.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 88 games (+17.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.90 Units / 36% ROI)

• Date: April 4, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs

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