San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox Prediction & Picks 6/30/2024

San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox Details

• Date: June 30, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matt Waldron - Padres
  • Josh Winckowski - Red Sox

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the San Diego Padres at Fenway Park on June 30, 2024, both teams look to build on their above-average seasons. The Red Sox, boasting a 43-39 record, have shown strong offensive prowess, ranking 7th in MLB for overall offense and 7th in team batting average. Meanwhile, the Padres, with a 46-41 record, have demonstrated their own offensive capabilities, ranking 9th overall and 2nd in team batting average.

On the mound, Boston will start Josh Winckowski, who has had a mixed season with a 3.26 ERA but an xFIP of 4.04, suggesting he might regress. Despite his solid ERA, Winckowski's strikeout rate of 19.4% is below average, and he faces a Padres lineup that strikes out the 2nd least in baseball, potentially giving San Diego an edge. Winckowski is projected to allow 2.5 earned runs and strike out just 2.9 batters over approximately 4.9 innings, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system.

San Diego counters with Matt Waldron, who has started 16 games this season, posting a 3.43 ERA, though his 4.06 xFIP also indicates some luck. Waldron is projected to allow 3.3 earned runs and strike out 4.4 batters over 5.2 innings. Both pitchers have similar xFIP numbers, suggesting that their performances have been somewhat fluky and might deteriorate as the season progresses.

Boston's bullpen, ranked 23rd in the Power Rankings, has struggled this season, a potential vulnerability against a potent Padres lineup. In contrast, San Diego's bullpen ranks 9th, providing a solid backstop if Waldron falters.

Offensively, the Red Sox's Romy Gonzalez has been red-hot, hitting .500 with a 1.417 OPS over the last week. For the Padres, Kyle Higashioka has been even more impressive, batting .429 with a 1.610 OPS, including 3 home runs and 10 RBIs in his last four games.

The betting markets have pegged this game as a close one, with Boston's moneyline set at -130, implying a 54% win probability, while San Diego's moneyline is at +110, implying a 46% win probability. Given Boston's offensive firepower and home-field advantage, the Red Sox appear to have a slight edge in what promises to be a high-scoring affair.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Among all the teams today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the San Diego Padres.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Kyle Higashioka has big-time HR ability (92nd percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (28.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Josh Winckowski struggles to strike batters out (19th percentile K%) — great news for Higashioka.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Projected catcher Kyle Higashioka projects as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Compared to average, Josh Winckowski has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an -23.5 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Rafael Devers has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 97.1-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 93.5-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Boston Red Sox bullpen projects as the 9th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.80 Units / 51% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.85 Units / 56% ROI)
• Wilyer Abreu has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.10 Units / 23% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.9 vs Boston Red Sox 5.24

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