San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox Prediction & Picks 6/29/2024

San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox Details

• Date: June 29, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael King - Padres
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox and San Diego Padres square off again on June 29, 2024, at Fenway Park. The Red Sox, with a 43-38 record, will look to bounce back after a 9-2 drubbing by the Padres in the series opener. The Padres, now 45-41, have momentum on their side after yesterday’s impressive win.

Boston will send Tanner Houck to the mound. Houck has been stellar this season, boasting a 2.18 ERA and a 7-5 record over 16 starts. Despite his outstanding ERA, his 2.95 xFIP suggests he might have been a tad fortunate, indicating potential regression. Houck’s last outing was solid, going 7 innings and allowing just 2 earned runs while striking out 7. His performance will be critical, especially considering Boston's bullpen ranks 21st in the league, which could spell trouble if Houck doesn't go deep into the game.

On the pad for San Diego is Michael King. With a 5-5 record and a 3.75 ERA, King has been reliable, if not spectacular. His last start was a rough one, surrendering 5 earned runs over 6 innings. King will need to step up against a potent Red Sox lineup that ranks 5th in the league. King’s strikeout ability (27.0 K%) might give him an edge against Boston, who is prone to striking out, ranking 5th in the league in that category.

Offensively, the Red Sox are led by Jarren Duran, who’s been their best hitter with a .287 average and an .825 OPS. Over the last week, Rafael Devers has been on fire, hitting .471 with 3 home runs. However, the Padres' Jurickson Profar has been even better this season, posting a .314 average and an .890 OPS. Kyle Higashioka has been the Padres' standout over the past week, driving in 12 runs with 4 homers and a .412 average.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Boston is favored to win with a 55% chance. Given the Red Sox's superior offensive firepower and Houck's consistent performance, they are positioned well to even the series, despite the Padres' impressive win yesterday. Betting lines currently have Boston as a -150 favorite, reflecting an implied win probability of 57%.

In terms of scoring, the game total is set at 8.5 runs, with the Red Sox projected to score 4.45 runs on average and the Padres 4.23. With both teams featuring top-10 offenses, this could be an action-packed affair, making for an exciting matchup at Fenway Park.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Michael King has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 5.5 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Extreme flyball hitters like Bryce Johnson tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Tanner Houck.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Kyle Higashioka, the Padres's expected catcher today, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

When estimating his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Tanner Houck in the 84th percentile among all starting pitchers in MLB.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Connor Wong is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox' bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst among all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 37 games (+9.90 Units / 24% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 35 away games (+7.95 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+37.30 Units / 266% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.19 vs Boston Red Sox 4.44

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.