San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox Prediction & Picks 6/28/2024

San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox Details

• Date: June 28, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres
  • Nick Pivetta - Red Sox

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

As the Boston Red Sox and San Diego Padres gear up for their Interleague showdown on June 28, 2024, at Fenway Park, both teams find themselves in the midst of above-average seasons. The Red Sox, boasting a 43-37 record, are set to host the Padres, who come in with a 44-41 mark. With each team striving to bolster their playoff aspirations, this matchup promises to be an intriguing one.

Nick Pivetta takes the mound for Boston, coming off a solid season where he's posted a 3.88 ERA and a 4-4 record in 10 starts. Pivetta's 3.38 SIERA, a key peripheral indicator, suggests he's been somewhat unlucky and could see even better results moving forward. However, Pivetta's biggest challenge will be facing a Padres lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB in team batting average and 8th in home runs. Despite his high strikeout rate (27.4%), Pivetta will need to navigate through an offense that is the 4th toughest in MLB to strike out.

Meanwhile, the Padres will counter with Randy Vasquez, whose season has been less impressive. Vasquez has struggled to a 5.70 ERA and a 1-4 record over 9 starts. His 4.47 xFIP indicates some bad luck, but he still faces a tall task against a potent Red Sox lineup. Boston's offense ranks 5th in MLB overall and boasts the 6th most stolen bases, making them a dynamic threat on the bases. Vasquez's low strikeout rate (14.5%) could be a slight advantage against Boston's high-strikeout offense, ranked 3rd in MLB.

Both bullpens could play a pivotal role in this game. The Red Sox bullpen ranks 20th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Padres' pen is a respectable 10th. Given the projected short outings for both starters, the relievers will likely be called upon early and often.

Offensively, the Red Sox have been led by Rafael Devers, who has been on a tear over the last week with a .368 batting average, 1.118 OPS, and two home runs in five games. On the Padres' side, Kyle Higashioka has been red-hot, posting a .375 batting average and a 1.444 OPS with three homers and ten RBIs over the last week.

With a game total set at 9.5 runs, bettors can expect some fireworks. The Red Sox are favored with a moneyline of -150, implying a 58% win probability. Given the strengths and weaknesses on both sides, this matchup could hinge on which starter can effectively navigate the opposing lineup and which bullpen can hold firm in the later innings.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The Boston Red Sox have 6 hitters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage against Randy Vasquez today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Jackson Merrill is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 99% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen grades out as the 10th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Nick Pivetta has notched a 27.2% K% this year, grading out in the 87th percentile.

• One of the best indicators of future strikeouts is past strikeouts.

Rafael Devers has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.3-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 93-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games (+7.00 Units / 21% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 92% ROI)
• Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+8.45 Units / 97% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.64 vs Boston Red Sox 5.02

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.