San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/28/2024

San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles Details

• Date: July 28, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres
  • Albert Suarez - Orioles

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

On July 28, 2024, the Baltimore Orioles will host the San Diego Padres in an Interleague matchup at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. This will be the third game in the series between these two teams. The Orioles are having a stellar season with a 61-43 record, currently placing them in a strong position for a playoff run. The Padres, sporting a 57-50 record, are also performing well, although they lag behind the Orioles.

The pitching matchup features Albert Suarez for the Orioles and Randy Vasquez for the Padres. Suarez, a right-hander, has had a solid season with a 5-4 record and a 3.48 ERA. However, his 4.59 xFIP indicates he might have had some luck on his side. On the flip side, Vasquez has struggled more with a 3-5 record and a 4.17 ERA. His underlying stats suggest further regression is likely, with a 4.71 SIERA hinting at potential troubles ahead.

Baltimore's offense is firing on all cylinders, ranking 3rd in MLB overall and leading the league in home runs. Their ability to hit the long ball is a significant advantage, especially against a pitcher like Vasquez, who has shown vulnerability. Meanwhile, the Orioles’ bullpen is ranked 18th, a middling figure that they will need to overcome to secure a win.

San Diego’s offense is no slouch either, ranking 11th overall and 1st in team batting average. However, their middle-of-the-pack home run and stolen base rankings indicate they might struggle to keep pace with Baltimore's power-heavy lineup.

Colton Cowser has been the standout for Baltimore over the past week, boasting a .429 batting average and a 1.145 OPS with 7 RBIs and one home run. For the Padres, Xander Bogaerts has been red-hot, hitting .625 with a 1.487 OPS over the same period.

Both teams are poised for a high-scoring affair, reflected in the game total of 9.5 runs. The Orioles are favored with a moneyline of -160, translating to a 59% implied win probability. Given the Orioles' potent offense and Suarez's relatively better performance on the mound, they seem well-positioned to extend their winning ways.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Randy Vasquez's 2399-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 81st percentile out of all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

In the last two weeks, Xander Bogaerts's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.7% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the San Diego Padres with a 17% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Recording 14.4 outs per GS this year on average, Albert Suarez falls in the 13th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Ryan O'Hearn has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97.6-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 90.5-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Baltimore Orioles bats jointly have been one of the best in the majors this year (2nd-) as it relates to their 89.9-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 53 games (+9.30 Units / 16% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 36 away games (+11.75 Units / 23% ROI)
• Jordan Westburg has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 31 games (+15.90 Units / 51% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.76 vs Baltimore Orioles 5.45

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