San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction & Picks 7/26/2024

San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles Details

• Date: July 26, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Adam Mazur - Padres
  • Grayson Rodriguez - Orioles

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are set to host the San Diego Padres on July 26, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. This Interleague matchup features two teams having solid seasons, with the Orioles boasting a 61-41 record and the Padres sitting at 55-50. Baltimore is in the thick of the playoff hunt, while San Diego is also performing above average.

The Orioles will send Grayson Rodriguez to the mound. Rodriguez has been impressive this season, holding a 12-4 record with a 3.83 ERA across 18 starts. According to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, Rodriguez is ranked the 42nd best starting pitcher in MLB, highlighting his strong performance. He projects to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, and striking out 5 batters on average today. However, he may struggle with control, as he is projected to allow 1.4 walks.

On the other side, the Padres will counter with Adam Mazur, who has had a rough season with a 1-3 record and a 7.84 ERA in seven starts. Mazur's 6.02 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky and might perform better going forward, but his current stats make him one of the worst pitchers in MLB. He is projected to pitch 4.6 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, and striking out 3.5 batters today.

Offensively, the Orioles have a significant edge. They rank 3rd in MLB in overall offense and lead the league in home runs. With a powerful lineup and Mazur's tendency to allow flyballs, Baltimore could capitalize on this matchup. Meanwhile, the Padres' offense, while 11th overall and 1st in batting average, faces a high-strikeout pitcher in Rodriguez, which could neutralize some of their strengths.

The Orioles' bullpen ranks 19th, while the Padres' bullpen is slightly better at 14th. Given these factors, Baltimore enters the game as a big betting favorite with a moneyline of -205, implying a 65% win probability. The Padres are underdogs with a moneyline of +175, implying a 35% win probability.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

With 6 hitters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Adam Mazur will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

In the last 14 days, Xander Bogaerts's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.8% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

San Diego Padres batters jointly rank 27th- in baseball for power this year when assessing with their 6.9% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Grayson Rodriguez’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2332 rpm) has been quite a bit higher than than his seasonal rate (2281 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Ryan Mountcastle's average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 90.8-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 78.4-mph in the last week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Anthony Santander pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 56 games (+10.20 Units / 16% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 47 away games (+12.95 Units / 20% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Walks Under in 24 of his last 29 games (+13.90 Units / 24% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.19 vs Baltimore Orioles 5.04

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