San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Odds & Picks – 5/19/2024

San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 19, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yu Darvish - Padres
  • Bryce Elder - Braves

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves are set to host the San Diego Padres in an exciting National League matchup at Truist Park on May 19, 2024. The Braves, with a season record of 26-15, are having a great season, while the Padres hold a 23-24 record, indicating an average performance so far.

On the pitching mound, the Braves are projected to start right-hander Bryce Elder, who has a record of 1-1 this season. Despite his below-average ERA of 4.79, his peripheral indicator, the 4.24 xFIP, suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. On the other side, the Padres are projected to start the talented right-hander Yu Darvish. With a record of 3-1 and an excellent ERA of 2.43, Darvish has been a strong asset for the Padres this season. However, his 3.77 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could potentially perform worse in upcoming games.

The Braves boast a powerful offense, ranking as the 6th best in MLB this season. They lead the league in team batting average and home runs, which could pose a challenge for Darvish, who has a high flyball rate of 38% this year. The Padres, on the other hand, have a solid offense, ranking 8th in MLB. While their team batting average is not impressive, they excel in home runs and stolen bases.

In terms of bullpen strength, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, considers the Braves' bullpen as the 5th best in the league, while the Padres' bullpen ranks 7th. This suggests that both teams have reliable relief pitchers to support their starting pitchers.

Based on the current odds, the Braves are favored to win with a moneyline of -115 and an implied win probability of 51%. However, THE BAT X projects the Braves to have a slightly higher win probability of 53%. With a high implied team total of 4.55 runs, the Braves' offense is expected to perform well, while the Padres are projected to score an average of 4.71 runs.

Overall, this game promises to be a close and exciting matchup between two teams with different strengths. The Braves' potent offense may have an advantage against Darvish's flyball tendencies, but Darvish's strong performance this season cannot be discounted. With both teams having solid bullpens, the game could come down to the performance of the starting pitchers. Baseball fans and sports bettors alike can look forward to a thrilling contest at Truist Park.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Yu Darvish's four-seam fastball percentage has jumped by 5.6% from last year to this one (16.7% to 22.3%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Xander Bogaerts has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (82% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The San Diego Padres bullpen profiles as the 7th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Out of all SPs, Bryce Elder's fastball velocity of 89 mph grades out in the 4th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Marcell Ozuna's quickness has decreased this season. His 26.37 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.95 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Jarred Kelenic hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.8% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 5th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 24 games (+18.75 Units / 70% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 19 away games (+10.65 Units / 44% ROI)
• Ozzie Albies has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.65 Units / 36% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.72 vs Atlanta Braves 4.57

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.