San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Odds & Picks – 5/17/2024

San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 17, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matt Waldron - Padres
  • Max Fried - Braves

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves are set to host the San Diego Padres in an exciting National League matchup scheduled for May 17, 2024, at Truist Park. The Braves, with a record of 26-14, are having a great season, while the Padres' record stands at 22-24, indicating a below-average performance so far.

The Braves are projected to start their ace left-handed pitcher, Max Fried, who is ranked as the #5 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Fried has been impressive this season, boasting a Win/Loss record of 3-1 and an ERA of 3.57. He is expected to pitch around 6.1 innings and allow an average of 2.2 earned runs per game, making him an elite pitcher.

On the other hand, the Padres are projected to start right-handed pitcher Matt Waldron, who is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Waldron has struggled this season, with a Win/Loss record of 1-5 and an ERA of 5.49. However, his 4.54 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better in the future.

The Braves' offense has been a force to reckon with this season, ranking as the #5 best in MLB. They lead the league in team batting average and home runs, showcasing their power at the plate. In contrast, the Padres' offense ranks #9 in MLB, with a lower team batting average but still showing strength in home runs and stolen bases.

In terms of the bullpen, both teams have solid rankings. The Braves' bullpen is considered the #7 best in MLB, while the Padres' bullpen ranks #8. This suggests that both teams have reliable relief pitchers to rely on in the late innings.

Based on the current odds, the Braves are the favorites with a moneyline of -210, implying a 65% win probability. The Padres, on the other hand, are the underdogs with a moneyline of +180 and a 35% win probability.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Matt Waldron has recorded 14.8 outs per start this year, ranking in the 22nd percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

This year, there has been a decline in Luis Campusano's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.75 ft/sec last year to 25.08 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen grades out as the 8th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Max Fried's sinker utilization has spiked by 5.3% from last year to this one (11.7% to 17%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Ozzie Albies is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of San Diego (#3-best of all teams on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Jarred Kelenic hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.8% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 21 games (+17.95 Units / 76% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 19 away games (+10.65 Units / 43% ROI)
• Orlando Arcia has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 30 games (+10.00 Units / 33% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 3.77 vs Atlanta Braves 5.12

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