San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Pick – 5/24/2025

As the San Diego Padres visit Truist Park to face the Atlanta Braves on May 24, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams. Atlanta is struggling with a record of 24-26, while San Diego sits comfortably at 28-21. In their last matchup, the Padres edged out the Braves 2-1, continuing their good season as the Braves search for a turnaround.

On the mound, Atlanta is set to start Grant Holmes, who has had a mixed season. With a 4.01 ERA and a Power Ranking of #159 among MLB pitchers, he has shown flashes of promise, but his metrics suggest he may have been lucky this year. Holmes projects to pitch 5.7 innings while giving up around 3 earned runs, but he has struggled with walks, averaging 1.7 per game, which could be problematic against a solid lineup like the Padres.

In contrast, San Diego counters with Michael King, who has been exceptional with a 2.59 ERA and a Power Ranking of #23. King projects to pitch 5.3 innings and allow only 2.8 earned runs, providing a strong advantage for the Padres. His ability to strike out batters, averaging 5.1 per game, further enhances his effectiveness.

Offensively, both teams rank in the middle of the pack, with the Braves at 14th in MLB and the Padres slightly behind at 13th. However, the Padres boast a stronger batting average of .275 compared to the Braves' average of .250.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, oddsmakers anticipate a competitive matchup. Both teams are listed at -110 on the moneyline, indicating a tight contest. With the Padres' stronger pitching and recent form, they may have the edge in this pivotal game.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Michael King's fastball velocity has fallen 1.2 mph this season (91.8 mph) below where it was last year (93 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Jason Heyward's average exit velocity has declined this season; his 88-mph figure last year has dropped off to 83.6-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 5th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Compared to the average starter, Grant Holmes has been given an above-average leash this year, recording an additional 3.5 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Typically, bats like Ozzie Albies who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Michael King.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Atlanta Braves projected offense ranks as the 2nd-strongest on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.85 Units / 40% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 away games (+5.95 Units / 24% ROI)
• Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+12.70 Units / 28% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.93, Atlanta Braves 4.81

• Date: May 24, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael King - Padres
  • Grant Holmes - Braves

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