San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Pick – 5/23/2025

On May 23, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the San Diego Padres at Truist Park in a critical National League matchup. The Braves currently sit at 24-25, showing some inconsistency this season, while the Padres are faring better at 27-21. Both teams are looking to capitalize on this series opener, especially considering the Braves have struggled recently in the standings.

In their last game, Chris Sale is expected to take the mound for the Braves. Sale's performance has been solid this season, with an ERA of 3.62 and a strong 30.4% strikeout rate. However, he has been somewhat unlucky, indicated by his 3.03 xFIP, suggesting he could improve going forward. On the other hand, Nick Pivetta will start for the Padres, boasting an impressive 2.86 ERA and a 5-2 record. Despite his strong numbers, projections suggest that he might be due for some regression, as his xFIP stands at 3.62, indicating he has benefited from some good fortune this year.

Offensively, the Braves rank 14th in the league, showing average performance, while the Padres sit slightly higher at 13th. Despite the Braves' average offensive output, their status as the betting favorite with a moneyline of -145 reflects confidence in their ability to turn the season around. The projected game total of 7.5 runs indicates expectations for a tightly contested affair. With both Sale and Pivetta taking the mound, this game presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors who believe in the Braves' potential to exceed expectations.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Nick Pivetta is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #25 HR venue in the majors today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Manny Machado has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 11.3% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past 7 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Chris Sale's slider rate has increased by 7.1% from last season to this one (40.3% to 47.4%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Matt Olson has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 102.9-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 94.7-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Atlanta Braves projected batting order profiles as the 2nd-best on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games at home (+6.55 Units / 32% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.35 Units / 97% ROI)
• Chris Sale has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.40 Units / 38% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.06, Atlanta Braves 5.13

• Date: May 23, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Pivetta - Padres
  • Chris Sale - Braves

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