San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction – 8/5/2025
The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres will play in an NL West matchup on Tuesday night. Arizona picked up a win in the first game of this series at home and will have to beat Yu Darvish to get another win tonight. Before these division rivals do battle on the diamond, continue reading to get my Padres vs Diamondbacks prediction.
Our Padres vs Diamondbacks Pick
- Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
| Matchup | San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks |
| Date & Time | August 5, 2025, 9:40 PM ET |
| Starting Pitchers | Yu Darvish (SD) vs. Ryne Nelson (ARI) |
| Stadium | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Broadcast | MLB Network |
Key Storylines to Watch
Pitching Matchup: Yu Darvish and Ryne Nelson will start this game for their respective teams tonight. Darvish is 1-3 and has a 6.46 ERA for the Padres this season. Injuries have really limited what he has been able to do for his team. Nelson is 6-3 and has a 3.20 ERA. He had a 2.22 ERA in his five starts in July and will look to carry that success into August.
Bullpen Usage: The Padres’ bullpen is the best in the league in terms of bullpen ERA. Arizona is in the bottom five in the league in that category. But Arizona’s bullpen held up for them in their win over the Padres on Monday.
Team Momentum: The Diamondbacks have won three games in a row coming into Tuesday’s action. San Diego has lost two of their last three games and remains three games back of the Dodgers in the NL West standings.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| Ryne Nelson | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 |
| Ketel Marte | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & Head-to-Head
- The Diamondbacks lead the season series between these teams 5-3.
- San Diego is 63-50 on the runline this season. They have the fifth-best runline win percentage in baseball.
- Arizona is 52-61 on the runline in 2025. They are tied for the seventh-worst win percentage on the runline.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Model Projection
Projected Score: Diamondbacks 5 – Padres 3
Win Probability: Diamondbacks 62% | Padres 38%
Final Thoughts
If Yu Darvish was healthy and pitching regularly for the Padres, I might take them to win this game. But Darvish has barely seen any time on the mound this year and he has struggled when he has pitched. I will take the Diamondbacks as a slight home underdog tonight to take advantage of the struggles of Darvish.
