San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction – 6/14/2025

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to face off against the San Diego Padres on June 14, 2025, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in a tightly contested National League West. The Diamondbacks currently hold a record of 35-34, while the Padres sit slightly ahead at 38-30. Despite their average performance this season, the Diamondbacks are banking on their potent offense, which ranks 3rd in MLB, to carry them through this matchup.

In their most recent contest, the Padres fell short, allowing the Diamondbacks to take the win, improving their standing in the series. With Zac Gallen projected to take the mound for Arizona, there's a sense of optimism among fans. Gallen, despite his 4-8 record and a less-than-ideal 5.15 ERA, is seen as an above-average pitcher based on advanced metrics, ranking 65th among MLB starters. His xFIP of 4.30 suggests he could be on the brink of better performances, especially against a Padres offense that has struggled to generate power, ranking 26th in home runs this season.

On the other hand, San Diego will counter with Ryan Bergert, who has shown glimpses of promise with a stellar 1.26 ERA. However, his 5.55 xFIP indicates that he may not sustain this level of success. The Diamondbacks should capitalize on Bergert’s high walk rate, as they rank 4th in MLB in drawing walks. Given these factors, Arizona's batters might find themselves in favorable counts throughout the game.

With a game total set at a high 9.5 runs, expectations are for a competitive, high-scoring affair. The Diamondbacks open as betting favorites with a moneyline of -150, reflecting their home-field advantage and offensive capability, suggesting a strong chance to secure the win in this pivotal matchup.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Ryan Bergert is an extreme flyball pitcher (36% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #29 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Jake Cronenworth has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 14.4 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a fair amount higher than his 8.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The San Diego Padres (19.4 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup of all teams today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

With a 1.03 discrepancy between Zac Gallen's 5.15 ERA and his 4.12 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the league this year and ought to see positive regression in future games.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Pavin Smith is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks' bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst among all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 52 games (+13.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 28 away games (+10.85 Units / 33% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.90 Units / 39% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.66, Arizona Diamondbacks 5.4

• Date: June 14, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Bergert - Padres
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.