San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick – 8/4/2025
The San Diego Padres will face the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday night at Chase Field in Phoenix. Both teams are looking to gain ground in the NL West standings as the Padres find themselves in the thick of the NL West title race going into this series. Before these NL West rivals face off in Phoenix, continue reading to get my Padres vs Diamondbacks prediction.
Our Padres vs Diamondbacks Pick
- Pick: Over 9.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
| Matchup | San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks |
| Date & Time | August 4, 2025, 9:40 PM ET |
| Starting Pitchers | JP Sears vs. Brandon Pfaadt |
| Stadium | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Broadcast | MLB Network |
Key Storylines to Watch
Pitching Matchup: Both starting pitchers have struggled coming into this game. San Diego’s JP Sears came over from the Athletics at the deadline. He is 7-9 this season and he has posted a 4.95 ERA. Brandon Pfaadt will get the start for the Diamondbacks. Pfaadt has gone 10-7 and has a 5.11 ERA while struggling to maintain any sort of consistency.
Bullpen Battle: The Padres have a much better bullpen than the Diamondbacks do. San Diego is number one in the league in bullpen ERA. The Diamondbacks are 26th in the league in bullpen ERA this year.
Team Momentum: The Padres have won four of their last five games and won their last series against the St. Louis Cardinals. The Diamondbacks have secured victories in two of their previous five games. They have won two games in a row over the Athletics before this series.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| Manny Machado | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Ketel Marte | Hits | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & Head-to-Head
- The Diamondbacks have a 4-3 lead in the season series against the Padres
- Arizona is 2-1 at home against the Padres this season.
- The Padres are 26-31 on the road this season. Arizona is 26-28 at home for the year.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Model Projection
Projected Score: Padres 6 – Diamondbacks 5
Win Probability: Padres 55% | Diamondbacks 45%
Final Thoughts
I expect this to be a close game no matter what the result ends up being. But I think that we see this game go over 9.5 runs no matter who wins in the end. Both starting pitchers have struggled this year and the Arizona bullpen will also likely give up some late runs. I’ll take the over in Phoenix tonight.
