San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick – 6/15/2025

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the San Diego Padres on June 15, 2025, both teams approach this matchup with different narratives. The Diamondbacks, currently holding a record of 36-34, are navigating an average season, while the Padres, boasting a 38-31 record, come in having a solid year. This game represents a critical juncture in their season, especially since it is the third in this series, and both teams are vying for positioning in the National League West.

Projected starters Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks and Nick Pivetta of the Padres are both right-handers with comparable numbers this season—Kelly ranks 54th and Pivetta 59th among starting pitchers according to advanced metrics. However, Kelly’s ERA of 3.18 shines brighter than Pivetta’s 3.48, indicating that Arizona’s pitcher has performed slightly better overall.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks are sitting pretty with the 3rd best offense in MLB, highlighted by their power with 101 home runs—the 3rd most in the league. Conversely, the Padres rank 19th, struggling to make an impact with power, as they sit at 26th in home runs. This discrepancy could be pivotal, particularly with Pivetta being a flyball pitcher who may be vulnerable to the Diamondbacks' power-hitting lineup.

Betting odds currently reflect a close contest, with the Diamondbacks favored at -135 and an implied team total of 4.50 runs. With the Padres at +115 and a total of 4.00 runs, this game promises to be an engaging matchup. If Arizona’s offense can capitalize on Pivetta's flyball tendencies, they may have the upper hand in this crucial series.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Nick Pivetta was in good form in his previous outing and conceded 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Luis Campusano is projected to bat 9th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The San Diego Padres (18.4 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the least strikeout-prone set of hitters of the day.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Compared to the average starter, Merrill Kelly has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an extra 3.4 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Corbin Carroll has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.5-mph average to last season's 89.2-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks' bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 49 games (+13.75 Units / 23% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 31 games (+11.85 Units / 32% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+9.05 Units / 45% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.36, Arizona Diamondbacks 4.8

• Date: June 15, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Pivetta - Padres
  • Merrill Kelly - D-Backs

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