San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals Prediction For 7/23/2024

San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals Details

• Date: July 23, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres
  • DJ Herz - Nationals

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Washington Nationals are set to host the San Diego Padres at Nationals Park on July 23, 2024. This National League matchup features two teams with contrasting seasons; the Nationals are struggling with a 47-53 record, while the Padres sit at a more respectable 52-50.

On the mound, Washington will send left-hander DJ Herz, who has had a tough season with a 5.17 ERA and a 1-3 record in seven starts. However, his 3.44 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better moving forward. Herz is a high-strikeout pitcher (29.1 K%) but will face a Padres offense that strikes out the least in MLB, potentially neutralizing his biggest strength.

San Diego counters with Randy Vasquez, a right-hander who has started 13 games this season, posting a 2-5 record and a 4.57 ERA. Vasquez's 6.29 xERA indicates he has been fortunate this season and might regress. He faces a Nationals offense that ranks 6th in least strikeouts, posing a challenge for Vasquez, who has a low strikeout rate (15.6 K%).

Offensively, the Padres hold an edge. They rank 11th in MLB overall, 2nd in batting average, and 13th in both home runs and stolen bases. In contrast, the Nationals rank 26th overall, 17th in batting average, 29th in home runs, but 3rd in stolen bases. Despite their struggles, Washington does have speed on the bases.

The bullpens could also play a significant role. The Nationals' bullpen ranks 28th, while the Padres' bullpen is 12th. This disparity could be crucial in a game projected to be close.

Betting markets favor the Nationals slightly with a -125 moneyline, implying a 53% win probability, while the Padres are at +105, implying a 47% win probability. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Padres with a slight edge, giving them a 51% chance to win.

Overall, this game is expected to be tightly contested, with both teams having strengths and weaknesses that could tip the scales. The Nationals will look to exploit Vasquez's vulnerabilities, while the Padres aim to capitalize on Herz's struggles and their superior offensive metrics.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Randy Vasquez has had some very poor luck with his strikeouts this year, posting a 6.14 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.01 — a 0.87 K/9 deviation.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Xander Bogaerts has been unlucky this year, notching a .264 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .329 — a .065 discrepancy.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Manny Machado ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Ranking in the 88th percentile, DJ Herz put up a 13.4% Swinging Strike% this year.

• Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.

Lane Thomas has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The 4th-worst projected batting order on the slate in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the Washington Nationals.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 54 of their last 93 games (+11.35 Units / 9% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 away games (+7.25 Units / 33% ROI)
• Luis Garcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+10.10 Units / 168% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.85 vs Washington Nationals 4.5

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