San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals Pick For 7/24/2024

San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals Details

• Date: July 24, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matt Waldron - Padres
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

On July 24, 2024, the Washington Nationals will host the San Diego Padres at Nationals Park for the second game of their series. The Nationals are currently having a below-average season with a 47-54 record, while the Padres are performing at an average level with a 53-50 record. This National League matchup features two pitchers who have struggled this season: Mitchell Parker for the Nationals and Matt Waldron for the Padres.

Mitchell Parker, a left-handed pitcher, has a 5-5 record with a 3.90 ERA in 17 starts this year. Despite his respectable ERA, Parker ranks as the #152 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating subpar performance overall. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests Parker will pitch 4.9 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, 5.3 hits, and 1.6 walks while striking out 3.4 batters. These projections highlight Parker's struggles, particularly in limiting hits and walks.

Matt Waldron, a right-handed pitcher, has a 5-9 record with a 3.59 ERA in 20 starts. However, his 4.24 xFIP suggests he's been somewhat fortunate and may regress. THE BAT X projects Waldron to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, 6.0 hits, and 1.3 walks while striking out 3.7 batters. Waldron's high-flyball tendency (39% FB rate) could play to his advantage against a Nationals offense that ranks 29th in MLB in home runs with just 84 this season.

Offensively, the Nationals rank 26th overall, but they excel in stolen bases, ranking 3rd with 95 swipes. Their batting average is 17th, and they have struggled to generate power. The Padres, on the other hand, boast the 11th best offense, ranking 2nd in batting average and 13th in home runs and stolen bases. Over the last week, Luis Arraez has been the Padres' standout hitter, batting .294 with a .957 OPS, while Juan Yepez has led the Nationals, hitting .375 with a 1.063 OPS.

The Padres' bullpen ranks 9th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, providing a significant edge over the Nationals' bullpen, which ranks 29th. Betting markets reflect a close game, with the Padres favored at -125 and the Nationals at +105. The projected game total is 8.5 runs, indicating an average scoring affair. Based on the current odds, the Padres have an implied team total of 4.40 runs, slightly higher than the Nationals' 4.10 runs. This matchup leans in favor of the Padres, given their superior bullpen and offensive firepower.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Throwing 91.8 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Matt Waldron checks in at the 75th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 89.6-mph average last season has decreased to 87.3-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The San Diego Padres bullpen projects as the 9th-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Because of his reverse platoon split, Mitchell Parker will benefit from facing 6 hitters in the projected offense who bat from the opposite side in today's matchup.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

CJ Abrams has been lucky this year, notching a .348 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .313 — a .035 gap.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

CJ Abrams pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.8% — 79th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 38 games at home (+8.80 Units / 19% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 39 away games (+8.15 Units / 15% ROI)
• Jacob Young has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 50 games (+8.40 Units / 16% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.96 vs Washington Nationals 4.61

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