San Diego Padres at Texas Rangers Pick & Prediction – 7/2/2024

San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers Details

• Date: July 2, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dylan Cease - Padres
  • Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the San Diego Padres on July 2, 2024, at Globe Life Field, there's a compelling pitching duel on tap. The Rangers, sitting at a 38-46 record, have struggled this season. On the other hand, the Padres have had a better run with a 46-42 record.

Nathan Eovaldi will take the mound for the Rangers. Ranking 72nd among MLB starting pitchers according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Eovaldi boasts a solid 3.45 ERA over his 13 starts this season. His 3.96 FIP suggests he's enjoyed some luck, so a regression could be on the horizon. Eovaldi's performance will be crucial against a potent Padres lineup.

Dylan Cease, ranked 24th by THE BAT X, will start for the Padres. Cease has been effective, posting a 3.84 ERA across 17 starts. His 3.22 xFIP indicates he's been a bit unlucky, suggesting he could be even better moving forward. Cease's ability to keep runs off the board will be vital, especially considering the Rangers' struggles offensively.

The Rangers' offense ranks 21st in MLB, a significant drop-off from the Padres' 8th-ranked unit. Texas has been average in batting average (18th) and home runs (15th) but has struggled with stolen bases (21st). Derek Hill has been a bright spot recently, hitting .357 with three home runs and a 1.400 OPS over the last week.

San Diego's offense is driven by an impressive team batting average, ranking 2nd in MLB. They're also 7th in home runs and have an average ranking in stolen bases (12th). Kyle Higashioka has been red-hot, hitting .357 with a 1.400 OPS and eight RBIs over the past week.

Both bullpens are closely matched; the Padres rank 9th, while the Rangers sit at 16th according to the power rankings. Betting markets have set the game total at a low 7.5 runs, reflecting the quality of the starting pitchers. With both teams holding a moneyline of -110, this interleague matchup promises to be tightly contested. The Rangers and Padres are both projected to score 3.75 runs, suggesting a close and potentially low-scoring affair.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

With 6 hitters of opposing handedness in the opposing team's projected offense, Dylan Cease has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Ha-seong Kim has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 5.3% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The San Diego Padres bullpen profiles as the 9th-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Out of all starting pitchers, Nathan Eovaldi's fastball velocity of 94.9 mph grades out in the 82nd percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Nathaniel Lowe's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 92.5-mph mark last season has dropped off to 87.4-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Josh Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 88th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 32 games at home (+15.65 Units / 45% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 71% ROI)
• Donovan Solano has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+10.05 Units / 19% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 3.99 vs Texas Rangers 3.9

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