San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Rays Pick & Prediction – 8/31/2024

• Date: August 31, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres
  • Shane Baz - Rays

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays face off against the San Diego Padres on August 31, 2024, both teams are looking to gain momentum in a tightly contested matchup. The Rays currently sit at 66-68, reflecting an average season, while the Padres boast a stronger record of 77-60, marking them as one of the league's better teams this year. This game is particularly significant as it is the second in the series, following a performance by the Padres that showcased their offensive prowess.

Shane Baz is projected to take the mound for the Rays, bringing a solid 3.48 ERA into the game. Despite his below-average ranking as the 146th best starting pitcher in MLB, Baz has shown flashes of potential, particularly with his ability to limit earned runs. However, he faces a challenge against a Padres lineup that ranks 1st in team batting average and 8th in overall offensive performance. The projections suggest that Baz may struggle against the Padres' low-strikeout offense, which could negate his strengths.

On the other side, Randy Vasquez will start for the Padres, though his 4.52 ERA reflects an average season. With a ranking as one of the league's worst pitchers, Vasquez has allowed 4.8 hits and 1.6 walks on average, which could present an opportunity for the Rays to capitalize if they can manage to get on base.

The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating a potentially close contest. The projections lean slightly toward the Rays, suggesting they might outperform their -120 moneyline, offering some value for bettors looking to back the home team. With Yandy Diaz heating up at the plate—recording 7 hits and 4 RBIs over the last week—the Rays may find the offensive spark they need against a struggling Vasquez.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Considering the 1.23 disparity between Randy Vasquez's 5.65 K/9 and his 6.88 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in MLB this year as it relates to strikeouts and figures to positively regress in future games.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Manny Machado has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.3-mph to 96.1-mph in the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The San Diego Padres (19.2 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 2nd-least strikeout-prone set of hitters on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-best out of all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Jose Siri has suffered from bad luck this year. His .281 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .328.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays' bullpen projects as the 3rd-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 131 games (+15.95 Units / 11% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 63 games (+11.90 Units / 14% ROI)
• Brandon Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+8.05 Units / 24% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 3.95 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.09

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