San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals Pick For 8/27/2024

• Date: August 27, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dylan Cease - Padres
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

As the St. Louis Cardinals host the San Diego Padres on August 27, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions within the standings. The Cardinals sit at 65-66, having had an average season, while the Padres boast a solid 75-58 record, positioning them well in the playoff race. This matchup is critical for the Cardinals, who are looking to gain ground as they attempt to stay relevant in the Wild Card picture.

In their last outing, the Padres beat St. Louis, showcasing their offensive prowess, but they will need to maintain that momentum against a Cardinals team that has struggled at times. Notably, the Cardinals have been riding the hot bat of Luken Baker, who has emerged as their best hitter over the last week with a 1.111 OPS and a home run in five games.

On the mound, the Cardinals are slated to start Miles Mikolas, who has had a tough season with a 5.19 ERA and a below-average ranking of 138th among MLB starting pitchers. His projection suggests he will pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing approximately 2.7 earned runs. However, Mikolas faces a daunting task against a Padres offense that ranks 8th overall in MLB and leads the league with a .274 batting average.

The Padres counter with Dylan Cease, who has been stellar this season, holding a 3.43 ERA and ranking 22nd among starting pitchers. Cease is projected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing about 2.5 earned runs, and he will look to capitalize on the Cardinals’ struggles at the plate.

While the betting odds favor the Padres with a moneyline of -140, the projections suggest a slightly closer contest, giving the Cardinals a 46% chance to win. With the Cardinals' offensive ranking at 20th and the Padres' at 8th, this game could hinge on whether Mikolas can outlast Cease and if the Cardinals can muster enough offense to pull off an upset.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Dylan Cease's slider percentage has jumped by 7.9% from last year to this one (38.6% to 46.5%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Jurickson Profar has been lucky this year, compiling a .373 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .321 — a .052 discrepancy.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

In his previous GS, Miles Mikolas performed well and conceded 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Paul Goldschmidt is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 87% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

St. Louis has performed as the #4 squad in Major League Baseball when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (44.1% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 32 games at home (+4.55 Units / 13% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 36 games (+12.35 Units / 24% ROI)
• Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.20 Units / 36% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.77 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.43

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