San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants Prediction For 9/14/2024

• Date: September 14, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joe Musgrove - Padres
  • Mason Black - Giants

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

As the San Francisco Giants host the San Diego Padres at Oracle Park on September 14, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Giants, with a record of 72-75, are having an average season and are not in the playoff race, while the Padres sit at 82-65, enjoying a strong season and vying for postseason positioning. In their last meeting, the Padres took the first game of the series, setting the stage for a crucial matchup.

Mason Black, projected to start for the Giants, has struggled this season, with a Win/Loss record of 0-3 and an alarming ERA of 7.50. Although his 5.11 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky, his low strikeout rate of 19.8% against the Padres, who have the fewest strikeouts in MLB, could lead to further challenges. Black is projected to pitch just 4.6 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs, which signals trouble for the Giants.

On the other hand, Joe Musgrove is set to take the mound for the Padres. With a more respectable 5-5 record and an ERA of 4.54, Musgrove also has a solid 3.93 SIERA, indicating he has room for improvement. He projects to pitch 5.4 innings while allowing 2.2 earned runs, which should give the Padres a slight edge in this matchup.

Offensively, the Padres rank 7th in MLB, bolstered by their 1st place batting average of .287, while the Giants' offense ranks a mediocre 16th, highlighting their struggles. With the Giants' best hitter, Matt Chapman, recently finding form, he may provide some resistance, but the overall numbers favor the Padres.

Given the disparity in pitching and offensive capabilities, this game presents an opportunity for the Padres to extend their lead in the Wild Card race while the Giants aim to salvage some pride in their disappointing season.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Joe Musgrove will wring up 5.8 strikeouts in this matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Kyle Higashioka's average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 88.6-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 78.9-mph in the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Mason Black's high usage rate of his fastball (60.7% this year) is likely hurting his results, consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

LaMonte Wade Jr. has experienced some negative variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 10.2 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is significantly deflated relative to his 18.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Heliot Ramos has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• Joe Musgrove has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 6 of his last 9 games (+2.70 Units / 26% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.76 vs San Francisco Giants 3.71

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.