San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants Pick & Prediction – 9/15/2024

• Date: September 15, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Martin Perez - Padres
  • Landon Roupp - Giants

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to face the San Diego Padres on September 15, 2024, the stakes are high for both teams, albeit for different reasons. The Giants, with a record of 72-76, are having an average season, while the Padres are firmly in the playoff hunt at 83-65. This matchup is crucial for the Padres as they look to solidify their postseason position.

In their last game, the Giants struggled, and the Padres showcased their strength, further emphasizing their offensive prowess. The Padres boast the best team batting average in MLB, a stark contrast to the Giants, who rank 20th in that category. With Landon Roupp set to take the mound for the Giants, his pitching will be tested against a potent Padres lineup.

The projections indicate that the Giants have a solid chance to compete, with an estimated team total of 4.15 runs. However, the Padres are projected to score slightly higher at 4.35 runs. Notably, the Giants' best hitter over the last week has been Jerar Encarnacion, who has been on a hot streak, recording 5 hits, 6 RBIs, and 2 home runs in just 4 games. This could provide a much-needed boost for San Francisco's offense, which has struggled at times this season.

Betting markets reflect the close nature of this matchup, with the Padres holding a slight edge in the moneyline at -120 compared to the Giants at +100. With both teams looking to make their mark, fans can expect an intense battle at Oracle Park.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The San Diego Padres infield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst among all the teams playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jurickson Profar's true offensive talent to be a .322, suggesting that he has been very fortunate this year given the .041 disparity between that figure and his actual .363 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The San Diego Padres bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Landen Roupp is projected to throw 80 pitches in today's game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 8th-least on the slate.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Tyler Fitzgerald is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Heliot Ramos has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• Martin Perez has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 4 of his last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 51% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.4 vs San Francisco Giants 4.21

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