San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants Pick For 9/13/2024

• Date: September 13, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dylan Cease - Padres
  • Logan Webb - Giants

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to host the San Diego Padres on September 13, 2024, this National League West matchup carries significant implications. While the Giants (72-75) are currently underperforming, the Padres (82-65) are enjoying a strong season. The Giants are in a precarious position and need to turn things around quickly, especially with their playoff hopes dangling by a thread.

The Giants recently played their last game, and while they didn't manage a victory, tonight's pitcher Logan Webb is coming off a solid run, ranked as the 10th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Webb has started 30 games this year, owning a 12-9 record with a respectable 3.46 ERA. However, projections suggest he could be due for a downturn, as his 4.31 xERA indicates he has been somewhat fortunate this season. Webb typically pitches 6.2 innings, expecting to allow 2.2 earned runs, but he struggles with both hits and walks—averaging 6.3 hits and 1.0 walks, which could be problematic against a potent offense like the Padres.

Dylan Cease, projected to start for the Padres, holds a 3.71 ERA and a 12-11 record this year. While he ranks 26th among starting pitchers, Cease also faces his own challenges. He projects to allow 4.4 hits and 2.1 walks, which could open up opportunities for a Giants offense that ranks 19th overall in MLB.

With a projected total of just 7.0 runs, the betting markets are indicating a close contest. Both teams are setting low implied totals at 3.50 runs. The Giants’ top hitter, Matt Chapman, has found some form lately, hitting .368 with 7 hits and 4 RBIs over the past week, and they'll need that momentum to compete against San Diego’s Manny Machado, who has also performed well with 8 RBIs in his last 5 games.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Dylan Cease's slider utilization has increased by 8.5% from last year to this one (38.6% to 47.1%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

San Francisco's #1-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Kyle Higashioka, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Jurickson Profar pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.5% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Among all the teams playing today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the San Francisco Giants.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Patrick Bailey is penciled in 7th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants's expected catcher today) projects as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+7.05 Units / 28% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 34 away games (+11.20 Units / 26% ROI)
• Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 24 away games (+14.55 Units / 40% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 3.5 vs San Francisco Giants 3.55

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.